Ukraine warns of "surprise" with Crimea, Russia acts urgently

Ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (Photo: AP).

"There will be many surprises in the future. And not only about the Crimean bridge. This bridge will be destroyed," Vasyl Maliuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), said in the first part of the SBU television documentary series, Victory of the Special Operations, which aired on November 24.

Mr Maliuk added that Ukraine had “in effect reversed the philosophy of naval operations”.

"We have destroyed the myth of Russian invincibility," the Ukrainian intelligence official declared.

Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, previously told Newsweek that targeting the Crimean bridge was part of Ukraine's counteroffensive to retake Russian-controlled territories, including the Crimean peninsula.

The Kerch Bridge serves as a vital supply route for Russian forces and is Moscow's only land link to Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.

Ukraine attacked the 19km road and rail bridge in October last year and again in July this year. The bridge, which has a four-lane road and two-track railway, is crucial to sustaining Russia’s military offensive in southern Ukraine.

Satellite images obtained by Newsweek show damage to the Kerch Bridge railway line after the second Ukrainian attack, which the British Ministry of Defense assessed as a significant “security burden” for Moscow.

"The Crimea Bridge is almost certainly a significant security burden requiring protection from multiple angles, including the deployment of air defence systems and aircrews who would otherwise be deployed elsewhere," the UK Ministry of Defence said.

A Ukrainian source confirmed that the attacks on Crimea, specifically targeting Russian naval bases and ships, are an integral part of the counter-offensive that has lasted for more than four months. Their aim is to isolate the peninsula, making it difficult for Russia to maintain military operations on the Ukrainian mainland.

Challenges for the Black Sea Fleet

Crimea Bridge connecting Crimea peninsula with Russia (Photo: Reuters).

Russia's Black Sea Fleet is facing a number of challenges after Ukraine's incursion into Crimea forced Russian ships to leave the port of Sevastopol, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the city of Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula has been the target of several recent Ukrainian attacks.

Newsweek estimates that since Russia began its military campaign in Ukraine in February last year, the Black Sea Fleet has recorded 17 attacks on its ships, including the flagship Moskva and the new frigate Askold.

Satellite images shared by Russian military bloggers on October 1 and 2 show that ships of Russia's Black Sea Fleet appear to have moved from their home port in Crimea to other Russian ports to avoid the risk of being attacked by Ukraine.

Satellite images show some of the largest ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet anchored at a naval port near Novorossiysk in the southern Krasnodor Krai region, while smaller vessels are anchored at the port of Feodosia in Crimea.

These ships include two missile frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, three submarines, five large landing ships, several small missile ships, and minesweepers. These ships were originally stationed in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, but have now spread out to two ports in Novorossiysk and Feodosia.

The Black Sea Fleet's ability to use the Novorossiysk base to reload cruise missiles on ships could become a key factor in the fleet's operational effectiveness, the British Ministry of Defence said on November 25.

"Traditionally, the Black Sea Fleet reloads its cruise missiles at Sevastopol in Crimea. However, given the increasing vulnerability of this location to long-range Ukrainian attacks, Russia is likely to see Novorossiysk as the best alternative location," the UK Ministry of Defence added.

However, according to the UK Ministry of Defence, "moving and reloading the missile would require new transport, storage, handling and reloading procedures".

The UK Ministry of Defence noted that the Ukrainian military said Russia's Black Sea Fleet was dealing with a number of "logistical issues" at Novorossiysk that prevented Moscow from conducting regular Kalibr cruise missile strikes.

"Russia will likely seek to expedite the resolution of such issues in order to bring sea-based cruise missiles into play in any winter offensive against Ukraine," the UK Ministry of Defence said.

The British Ministry of Defense believes that the relocation of some of the Black Sea Fleet's operations to the port of Novorossiysk is partly to limit the threat of attack from Ukraine, and also to narrow the coordination gap between their air and naval forces.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/ukraine-canh-bao-dieu-bat-ngo-voi-crimea-nga-gap-rut-hanh-dong-20231126085210962.htm