Why has the price of gold not decreased?

Whether gold prices can decrease or not depends on the balance of supply and demand.

On August 26, the Government issued Decree 232/2025 amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 24/2012 on the management of gold trading activities. The Decree takes effect from October 10, 2025, with the most important change being the removal of the state monopoly mechanism on the production of gold bars. This is considered a turning point in the management of the gold market.

Gold prices continue to climb

The representative of Phu Quy Gold and Gemstone Group believes that when the gold bar market has more widespread participation from banks and qualified enterprises, the price gap between domestic and international markets will certainly be narrowed, the market will operate more stably, and speculation will be limited. "This is a positive signal to help ensure the interests of people and investors and contribute to strengthening macroeconomic stability" - the representative of Phu Quy Gold and Gemstone Group shared.

However, the market reality in recent days has witnessed an opposite scenario. The news of the lifting of the monopoly on gold bar production has not been able to cool down the gold price.

In just a few days, the price of SJC gold bars jumped from 125.7 million VND/tael for buying and 127.7 million VND/tael for selling to 131.9 - 133.4 million VND/tael (buying and selling), an increase of about 6 million VND each way. Plain gold rings and 24K gold jewelry also climbed to 125.5 million VND/tael for buying and 128 million VND/tael for selling, about 5 million VND higher than before.

The gold price "fever" has led to people rushing to buy gold. On September 3 in Hanoi , many gold shops were packed with customers lining up from morning to afternoon just to buy a few taels of gold rings or gold bars. At Bao Tin Minh Chau store on Tran Nhan Tong street, employees said that all the gold rings were sold out within 30 minutes of opening, even though each customer was only allowed to buy a maximum of 1 tael.

In Ho Chi Minh City, the situation is similar. Dozens of customers lined up to buy gold at the headquarters of Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) to wait their turn to buy gold. When the staff announced that SJC gold bars were out, they immediately switched to buying plain gold rings, even though each person was only allowed to buy a maximum of half a tael per day.

According to financial expert Phan Dung Khanh, the domestic gold price movement in recent days has been strongly affected by the world market and the limited supply situation. The international gold price has officially set a new historical peak of over 3,530 USD/ounce, due to the increasing demand for safe havens of cash flow. Many investors have even taken profits from stocks (which have increased sharply since the beginning of the year) to switch to gold, causing the demand for this type of asset to increase dramatically.

However, Mr. Khanh predicts that this growth momentum may only last in the short term and will hardly explode as strongly as last year and early this year. The reason is that unstable factors such as geopolitical tensions or tariff policies are no longer too hot. Moreover, the world gold price has continuously broken the peak for the past 2 years, the recent growth rate has slowed down.

"Domestic, the USD/VND exchange rate has increased but is well controlled by the State Bank so it usually only has a short-term impact. The new gold policy from Decree 232 can help reduce the gap between domestic and world gold prices in the medium term. Therefore, the possibility of domestic gold prices increasing sharply like in the previous period" - Mr. Khanh commented.

Gold prices have been continuously climbing recently, leading to people rushing to buy gold. Photo: LAM GIANG

Scarce supply

Regarding the fact that domestic gold prices are still climbing after the news of the removal of the monopoly on gold bars, Mr. Dinh Nho Bang, Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Trading Association, said that opening up production will help the market have more products, but it does not mean that any enterprise can participate. To be eligible, enterprises must have a minimum charter capital of 1,000 billion VND, and commercial banks must have 50,000 billion VND. These requirements are considered necessary to ensure that only organizations with strong financial potential and transparent management can enter a sensitive market like gold bars.

Mr. Bang also noted the problem of raw gold supply. "Because Vietnam does not have a commercial gold mine, the production of gold bars is forced to rely on imports, as well as depending on limits, licenses and monetary policies at each stage. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that just by removing the monopoly, the market will immediately change, but many coordination factors must be taken into account," he emphasized.

According to the Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Trading Association, whether or not the gold price can decrease depends on the balance of supply and demand. If demand is high but supply is not guaranteed, the price will be difficult to decrease. On the contrary, if the import of raw gold is opened, businesses have sources for processing, the price can stabilize and go down.

From the perspective of a gold trading company, Mr. Tran Huu Dang, General Director of AJC Gold and Gemstone Joint Stock Company, said that the reason lies in the fact that the current supply depends entirely on the selling level from the State Bank through 4 major commercial banks (Agribank, Vietcombank, BIDV, VietinBank), SJC Company and the amount of gold sold by people. But recently, both the state and people have sold very little. Meanwhile, the world gold price has continuously set new peaks, currently far exceeding the 3,500 USD/ounce mark, money flows to gold as a safe haven, causing the domestic price to climb to 133.4 million VND/tael, 15-20 million VND/tael higher than the world price.

However, Mr. Dang still believes in the medium-term prospects when enterprises are allowed to import gold. At that time, the units with conditions will proactively produce gold bars, gold rings, and gold jewelry, thereby cooling down prices and bringing domestic developments closer to the world.

"Decree 232 also paves the way for businesses to buy and sell raw gold with each other, ensuring a stable supply, creating opportunities for the development of the jewelry and fine arts industry. In the context of the Ministry of Finance proposing to reduce the export tax on gold jewelry to 0%, this will be a big boost for Vietnamese goods to expand the international market," Mr. Dang expected.

Another member of the Vietnam Gold Business Association commented that the domestic gold price cannot narrow the gap with the world price because the core issue is that there is no source of imported gold to serve production and business.

Although four commercial banks have been qualified to produce gold bars, they are still in the process of applying for a license. Large enterprises are also waiting for specific instructions from the State Bank on the process of managing, importing, producing and trading raw gold.

"When these regulations come into effect, businesses can choose the right time to buy world gold, bring it back to produce gold bars, and at the same time sell raw gold to processing units. Only this synchronous operation can help the Vietnamese gold market cool down, moving towards narrowing the price gap between domestic and world prices," he said.

Should gold be taxed?

In response to the question of whether to impose taxes to limit gold speculation, Mr. Dinh Nho Bang said that managing the gold market is a long process, inseparable from other macroeconomic policies. The stock market, bank interest rates, real estate, etc. are all investment channels that have a direct impact on capital flows. When these channels operate effectively, people will not put money into gold.

"In addition, gold is recognized by the Constitution as a legal asset, a right of ownership of the people. They have the right to invest as they wish. Therefore, the important thing is not only to manage the gold market but also to create reasonable policies for other investment channels, so that capital flows are optimally allocated and bring more benefits to the people. In other words, managing the gold market is not everything, but needs to be placed in the overall macroeconomic policies" - Mr. Bang analyzed.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/vi-sao-gia-vang-chua-giam-196250903214351158.htm