WTO adjusts global economic growth forecast

Illustration photo.

The WTO has had to revise its trade and economic growth forecasts several times this year, a rare occurrence, due to the unpredictable uncertainties of the Trump administration’s constantly changing tariff policies. Since returning to the White House in January, President Trump has implemented several rounds of tariff hikes on imported goods into the US, disrupting global supply chains and investment activities.

According to WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, countries have generally responded cautiously to the US tariff changes. This, combined with the growth potential in AI and increased trade between the rest of the world , especially between emerging economies, has helped ease trade difficulties in 2025. However, the current disruptions in the global trading system will force countries to reshape trade and work together to create a stronger foundation for prosperity for people around the world.

Ms Okonjo-Iweala said the world trading system is showing resilience, with the rules-based multilateral system providing some stability amid trade uncertainty. For 2025, the WTO raised its forecast for global trade volume growth to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in August 2025, largely due to a surge in exports to the US before the tariff hike and growth in trade in AI-related goods such as semiconductors and telecommunications equipment. This is still lower than the 2.8% growth achieved in 2024. However, the outlook for 2026 is more gloomy at just 0.5%, down sharply from the previous forecast of 1.8%, due to the lagged effects of US tariffs.

Trump’s tariff decisions have roiled financial markets and caused uncertainty across the global economy. On August 7, Trump imposed higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, leaving major trading partners like Switzerland, Brazil and India scrambling for a better deal, while the European Union reached a deal to impose a 15% tariff on most goods imported into the United States.

Ms Okonjo-Iweala said tariffs were weighing on trade, although the postponement of several tariff hikes from April 2025 to August 2025 had pushed the impact to later this year, and especially next year.

According to the WTO report, in the first half of 2025, the volume of world merchandise trade, calculated by averaging exports and imports, increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with trade turnover increasing by 6%, compared with 2% growth in 2024.

Source: https://vtv.vn/wto-dieu-chinh-du-bao-tang-truong-kinh-te-toan-cau-100251008093916277.htm