University Admissions 2025: Predicted sharp decrease in benchmark scores

P COMBINED SCORE D01: RECRUITMENT SOURCES DECLINED VIOLENTLY

Based on the exam data of the Ministry of Education and Training, Thanh Nien Newspaper analyzed the recruitment sources of some traditional admission groups, thereby realizing that the recruitment sources of the D01 group this year have decreased dramatically in both quantity and score.

According to the Ministry of Education and Training, the whole country has 1,137,183 candidates (TS) registered to take the 2018 General Education Program exam (the number of candidates taking the 2006 Program exam is insignificant, so in this article we only talk about the candidates taking the 2018 Program exam). Of which, 351,484 students took the English exam, only 39% of last year (last year because English was a compulsory subject, the whole country had 906,549 students taking the exam).

Analysis of the Ministry of Education and Training's exam data shows that nationwide, there are 350,654 candidates taking the three subjects of math, literature, and English, which are also the three subjects that make up the D01 admission combination. This is the admission combination with the largest source of candidates among the five traditional combinations (A00, A01, B00, C00, D01).

Dự báo điểm chuẩn đại học 2025 sẽ giảm sâu , ngành hot vẫn giữ ổn định - Ảnh 1. — The results of the high school graduation exam announced by the Ministry of Education and Training show that the number of candidates for some traditional admission groups this year has decreased dramatically in both quantity and score.

The highest score is 29, and there is only 1 student. From 28 points and above, there are 21 students nationwide. From 28.25 and above, there are only 7 students; from 28.5 and above, there are 4 students; from 28.75 and above, there are only 2 students.

There are 291,186 candidates with scores of 15 or more. Meanwhile, the equivalent number of candidates in 2024 will reach 21.25 points or more, and in 2023 will reach 20.75 points or more. Thus, to have the same number of candidates of about 300,000 candidates in the D01 group, the "floor" score this year is 15, while in previous years it was around 21 points, a difference of nearly 6 points.

There are 193,775 candidates with scores of 18 or higher. The equivalent number of recruitment sources in 2024 is about 22.5 points, in 2023 is about 22 points. The "floor" of recruitment sources differs by about 4 points.

The higher the score, the narrower the difference between the "floor" of the recruitment source. With 20 points or more, there are 109,524 candidates. This is the number of recruitment sources equivalent to the "floor" of 24 points last year (104,989), 23.5 points in 2023.

This year, Foreign Trade University announced the admission "floor" to be 24 points (however, the school also said that this "floor" will be adjusted based on the results of the 2025 high school graduation exam). If it still wants to maintain the same number of admission sources as last year, the school's "floor" will have to be lowered by about 4 points.

If the "floor" score is still maintained at 24, the recruitment source of Foreign Trade University and schools focusing on D01 combination recruitment source will only be 12,186 students. Lowering it to 23 points, the recruitment source will only be 25,184 students.

Thus, if they want to have the same source of recruitment as last year, universities whose main source of recruitment is PhDs from the D01 group must lower the "floor" by 4 - 6 points.

SHOCKED BY THE SOURCE OF THE B00 COMPLEX

In the 12 subject score ranges announced by the Ministry of Education and Training, the 3 subjects that make up the B00 group (math, chemistry, biology) all have lower average and median scores than last year. In addition, math is considered a difficult subject when most candidates score below average. In addition, biology has the lowest number of candidates registered for the exam among the subjects that make up the 5 traditional admission groups. All of this creates an unprecedentedly low B00 group score range.

Dự báo điểm chuẩn đại học 2025 sẽ giảm sâu , ngành hot vẫn giữ ổn định - Ảnh 2. — Candidates learn about university admission on the morning of July 16 as soon as they know their high school graduation exam scores.

According to the Ministry of Education and Training, this year there are 69,895 candidates nationwide taking the biology exam. Through data analysis from the Ministry of Education and Training, we found that only 44,964 candidates took all three subjects of math, chemistry, and biology, qualifying for the B00 group. Of these, only 33,325 students scored 15 points or higher (on a 30-point scale). This number is even less than the total regular university quota last year for all health sectors nationwide (46,078).

This is one of the two majors that the Ministry of Education and Training has set a "floor" score for (along with the teacher training major). So what will the floor score be for the health major this year? The "floor" score for the medical and dental majors has been 22.5 for many years.

This year, if we consider from the 22.5 point mark, the whole country only has 9,440 students with B00 combination. Last year, the score of 22.5 points with B00 combination had 94,627 students, 10 times more than this year. Meanwhile, according to statistics from the Department of Science, Technology and Training, Ministry of Health , the medical sector alone in the whole country recruits about 11,500 regular university students.

Assuming all candidates with B00 combination register for medical examination, the standard score for medical examination will be 21.5 points (at this score, the whole country has 11,945 candidates achieving). This means that there is almost no source of candidates with 21.5 points or higher for other majors such as dentistry (a hot growth major, last year there were more than 2,000 targets, this year it could be up to nearly 4,000 targets), traditional medicine, preventive medicine... Also at 21.5 points, last year the whole country had 137,945 candidates with B00 combination, 11.5 times more than this year.

Dự báo điểm chuẩn đại học 2025 sẽ giảm sâu , ngành hot vẫn giữ ổn định - Ảnh 3. — Compare the recruitment sources of D01 group in 2023, 2024, 2025

Dự báo điểm chuẩn đại học 2025 sẽ giảm sâu , ngành hot vẫn giữ ổn định - Ảnh 4. — Comparison of B00 combination recruitment sources in 2023, 2024, 2025

Therefore, the most unpredictable information now is the "floor" score set by the Ministry of Education and Training for the health sector. Previously, during the "3 general" exam, a floor score of 14-15 for the health sector was considered normal. With the score range and the source of B00 combination this year, even if the floor score is 15, many schools will still have difficulty recruiting enough.

No matter what level the Ministry of Education and Training sets the "floor" at, or even if it doesn't set a "floor", the number of B00 candidates this year will certainly not be half of last year's B00 candidates. Assuming the "floor" is 15 points, the number of B00 candidates will only reach nearly 1/3 of last year.

TOP MEDICAL SCHOOLS STILL MAINTAIN HIGH STANDARD SCORES

In previous years, the medical major of public schools in the North hovered around 26 points, and the lowest was nearly 25 points. The benchmark score for the medical major of Hanoi Medical University was up to 28.27 points.

If we analyze the B00 combination from 25 points and above this year and previous years, we see a clear differentiation in recruitment sources. Right at the 25 point mark, the recruitment source in 2024 is 4.6 times higher and in 2023 it is also 3.2 times higher than this year. But at the high score of 26.5 points and above, the recruitment source this year and previous years is not much different (this year is 1,661 students, last year was 3,862).

The gap in recruitment sources between years is even narrower as the level increases. At 27 points, this year there are 1,055 students passing, last year there were 1,962 students passing. At 27.5 points, this year there are 613 students passing, last year there were 910 students passing. At 28 points, this year and last year are equivalent, 311 (2025) and 363 students. Thus, for schools that in previous years had high medical standards (from 27 and up), this year there is a high chance that the standards will remain the same as before. At least it will only decrease by 0.5 - 1 point. The standards may only decrease deeply for schools that in previous years had standards at the same level as the floor (22.5) or only a few points above the floor.

Aspirational strategy

The major you like most at your favorite school will be your highest choice, followed by the next choices. You should not put too few choices to be safe, but you should not put too many choices because it can be confusing.

Master Nguyen Thi Kim Phung (University of Finance and Marketing)

Dự báo điểm chuẩn đại học 2025 sẽ giảm sâu , ngành hot vẫn giữ ổn định - Ảnh 5.

Please pay close attention to the industry code and school code.

Candidates need to consider carefully when choosing the order of priority. Candidates need to pay close attention to the major code and school code, every year candidates often make this mistake. After completing the registration, you need to check the information again. Candidates also need to note that the deadline for paying the application fee is from July 29 to August 5.

Master Bui Mai Hoang Lam (Van Hien University)

Dự báo điểm chuẩn đại học 2025 sẽ giảm sâu , ngành hot vẫn giữ ổn định - Ảnh 6.

Note 3 information

Candidates only need to pay attention to 3 pieces of information when registering their wishes: order of wishes, school code and major code. This will help candidates avoid mistakes during the registration process.

Master Vo Ngoc Nhon (Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology)