The Shinawatra family's chances in the Thai election

Paetongtarn Shinawatra - a scion of Thailand's most prominent political family - is entering the May 14 election pledging to lead the Southeast Asian country after nearly a decade of military rule.

“We will support each other to regain democracy, to regain our lives,” Ms. Shinawatra, 36, said at a Bangkok stadium decorated in Pheu Thai’s signature red last month.

Ms Shinawatra is seeking a landslide victory that cannot be denied under Thailand's election rules.

Thailand's military has previously refused to hand power to civilian politicians, and there have been 13 coups since 1932, with two of them targeting Shinawatras - former Prime Ministers Thaksin (in 2006) and his sister Yingluck (in 2014).

Due to the influence of the Thai military in neighboring countries, the results of the May 14 election will also receive different opinions across the region, according to the Financial Times.

The Straits Times commented that this election is expected to be the main confrontation between the incumbent prime minister's party and the leading candidate of the Pheu Thai party.

The competition between populist pledges

Ms. Shinawatra entered Thai politics in earnest last year. Some saw her candidacy as a precursor to a larger “political earthquake”: the return of Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms. Paetongtarn’s father, the former prime minister ousted in a 2006 coup.

Some parts of the Thai public – especially in the rural northern heartland – still love the Shinawatras for their poverty-alleviating policies such as the $1 -a-visit universal health care program.

Mr Thaksin “changed the game,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University. “He made the policy platform deliver results. The party became so powerful that it challenged the established centers of power.”

Thais vote early on May 7 in Bangkok. (Photo: Reuters)

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha took power in 2014 after Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's sister, was ousted. On July 15, 2019, Prayuth officially announced the end of military rule after 5 years.

Despite some opposition, Mr Prayuth went on to win in 2019 and is running for re-election in 2023. However, under the Thai Constitution, the maximum term for a prime minister is eight years.

“Would you trust an experienced old captain like me or a young pilot to fly this plane? ” he told supporters.

Prayuth’s achievements have been overshadowed by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has hit Thailand’s export- and tourism-dependent economy hard. The resumption of international tourism, especially from China, is expected to improve the economic outlook, but a weak baht has also hurt exporters.

The government estimates Thailand’s economic growth at just 2.7-3.7% for 2023. The election campaign has become a contest between populist pledges totaling tens of billions of dollars, from wage and pension increases to subsidies and cash handouts.

Pheu Thai must choose between two generals?

Prayuth is trailing in opinion polls, but the incumbent prime minister also has the advantage of military backing. Thailand's top government post is chosen by a combined vote of the 500 elected members of the House of Representatives and the 250 appointed members of the Senate.

The current Senate members are hand-picked by Mr Prayuth, so they are likely to vote for conservatives and against the Shinawatras. The opposition therefore needs to win at least 376 seats.

The fate of Ms Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai party – which is aiming for around 310 seats – is likely to depend on Move Forward, the successor to Future Forward, which burst onto the Thai political scene five years ago and contested the first election since the 2014 coup.

Future Forward - representing young voters hungry for change - was a new force, promising far-reaching changes to Thailand's political structure, including curbing the powers of the armed forces and changing the then-taboo monarchy.

Mr Pongsudhirak said the foundation of Move Forward amounts to a “paradigm shift”. “The commitment is not only to recognize the poor and address inequality, but also to structural reform of the traditional institutions that run Thailand,” he said.

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha on May 7. (Photo: Reuters)

Pheu Thai has not made clear its stance on constitutional amendments or curbs on the monarchy, potentially leaving the door open to other coalition partners.

Meanwhile, the ruling Palang Pracharath Party is backing Mr Prayuth's deputy, former army chief Prawit Wongsuwan, while Mr Prayuth has switched to the newly formed United Thai National Party.

“Pheu Thai cannot form a government alone,” said Punchada Sirivunnabood, associate professor of political science at Thailand’s Mahidol University. She added that to secure Senate support, the party faces a choice between “two generals, either Prayuth or Prawit.”

On May 7, in a last-ditch effort to shore up her party’s support base, Paetongtarn Shinawatra ruled out any cooperation with Palang Pracharath. However, an alliance between the Shinawatra faction and Move Forward could increase the risk of military or judicial intervention.

“There is a possibility of some instability. If everything goes according to the polls, the old power centers will not be able to sit idly by with the strong performance of Move Forward,” Ms. Pongsudhirak said.

Meanwhile, Thaksin Shinawatra, who has lived in exile in Dubai since 2008, has pledged to return to his homeland despite facing multiple corruption charges. He and his Pheu Thai party have denied that his daughter's candidacy was intended to secure an amnesty.

The 73-year-old former prime minister reiterated his intention to return to Thailand on May 9. “I am asking for permission again. I have decided to visit my grandchildren in July, before my birthday,” Reuters quoted Mr. Thaksin as saying.

(Source: Zing News)

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