Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba Resigns - Causes and Further Developments

(Baothanhhoa.vn) - On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba officially announced his resignation after less than a year in office. This decision comes in the context of him facing increasing pressure from within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), after a series of failures in recent elections that have seriously weakened the government. This is a remarkable turning point in Japanese politics, opening up many questions about the internal stability of the LDP, its ability to run the government and its impact on upcoming domestic and foreign policies.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation. Photo: Izvestia

Reason for resignation

In public remarks, Mr. Ishiba cited upcoming tariff negotiations with the United States as a “milestone” in foreign policy; and said that this was the right time for him to step down, making way for a new generation of leaders.

“I have always said that I will decide what to do at the appropriate time. With our tariff negotiations reaching a certain stage, I believe now is the right time,” he said, as quoted by The Japan Times. “I have decided to leave the job to the next generation.”

However, analysts say this announcement is more strategic than proactive. In fact, Mr. Ishiba is at risk of being eliminated by his own allies in the party if he continues to cling on. Retiring at a sensitive time can be seen as a way to save political face and avoid a public leadership crisis.

In the weeks leading up to his decision, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had been trying to hang on despite growing calls from within his own party to resign, warning that his departure could create a dangerous “political vacuum” at a time when Japan is facing a number of challenges: slowing economic growth, rising living costs and growing tensions with the United States.

However, his efforts were soon overshadowed by a serious decline in confidence from both the party and the public. One of the biggest blows to Prime Minister Ishiba's position was the resignation of party Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama last week after the defeat in the Upper House election. Hiroshi Moriyama's departure not only showed disunity within the leadership, but also deprived the Prime Minister of an important political support to maintain influence internally.

The situation became worse when on Saturday, September 6, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Suga - a powerful figure in the party and has a say in personnel decisions - was said to have directly urged Mr. Ishiba to resign, in order to avoid an internal vote of no confidence.

Opinion polls within the party show a clear trend against Mr. Ishiba. According to a survey by the Yomiuri Shimbun, 21 provincial LDP branches support holding early leadership elections, compared with only 9 branches that oppose it. More than 160 LDP lawmakers also expressed support for pushing for early elections, suggesting that Mr. Ishiba has lost the support needed to continue as leader.

The internal vote was prepared as an unofficial “confidence referendum”. Isolation within his own party left Mr. Ishiba with little choice but to withdraw – a move that was seen as a way to avoid a humiliating defeat in public and party history.

The leadership race and the challenges ahead

After Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, Japanese politics entered a period of uncertain transition. The choice of a successor is not only an internal personnel issue for the LDP, but also a test of the resilience of a party that is divided and has lost its majority - a rare phenomenon for the LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics almost continuously since 1955.

The race for the LDP leadership, and thus the Prime Ministership, is expected to be fierce, with many important figures in the party participating. Among the names being considered, observers are paying special attention to: (1) Sanae Takaichi, former Minister of Economic Security, a distinctly conservative politician, who is said to be preparing to run for re-election after losing the previous race. (2) Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, stands out as a young face capable of attracting new voters, especially urban youth. (3) Yoshimasa Hayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary, is highly regarded for his executive experience and ability to build consensus within the party. (4) Takayuki Kobayashi, a former Minister, represents a generation of moderate leaders with reformist views and a pragmatic approach.

Each candidate represents a different branch of the LDP's political spectrum, from traditional conservatives to modern reformers. The choice of successor will not only shape the party's direction in the coming period, but also reflect its strategy for dealing with a society undergoing profound economic and demographic change.

Mr Ishiba’s successor will be tasked with leading a disunited LDP without a majority in either the House of Representatives or the House of Councillors. This means the new leader will be forced to negotiate and compromise with opposition parties to pass key bills, while ensuring he does not lose support from internal factions.

In this context, an early Lower House election could be used as a tool to consolidate power. However, this move is fraught with risks, especially when voter confidence is clearly declining after the failures of the Ishiba government. People's livelihood issues, especially inflation and food prices, notably the high price of rice, are becoming hot topics in public opinion.

Economically, Japan still faces systemic problems: stagnant growth, an aging population and inflationary pressures. Although Mr. Ishiba has made some progress in negotiations with the United States, notably reducing auto import tariffs from 27.5% to 15%, trade tensions between the two countries remain fraught with uncertainty.

Investors at home and abroad are closely watching political developments in Tokyo. The Japanese yen is under pressure and government bonds are showing strong volatility - signs that financial markets are reacting to the risk of policy instability.

Mr. Ishiba’s resignation not only ends a short term, but also opens a challenging period for Japanese politics. The race for the LDP leadership will determine not only the party’s political direction, but also shape the country’s ability to respond to a series of mounting problems, from the domestic economy, social stability, to foreign relations.

Hung Anh (Contributor)

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