GDP growth forecast for 2026 strives to reach 10%

In 2026, the Government determined to continue prioritizing promoting growth associated with maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and ensuring major balances of the economy, public debt, and state budget deficit within prescribed limits.

Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi presents the report. (Photo: Investment Newspaper)

Based on the viewpoints, goals, targets, tasks and main solutions in the draft document submitted to the 14th National Party Congress, the Government has proposed 15 main targets of the socio -economic development plan.

In particular, the GDP growth target in 2026 is expected to reach 10%, GDP per capita to reach 5,400-5,500 USD, consumer price index (CPI) growth rate of about 4.5%...

That is the content stated in the report on the implementation of the 2025 Socio-Economic Development Plan and the draft Socio-Economic Development Plan for 2026 of the Government, Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi reported to the National Assembly Standing Committee on the morning of October 15.

The leaders of the Ministry of Finance summarized that the socio-economic situation continued to achieve many important and comprehensive results in most areas, basically achieving the set general goals, and expected to achieve and exceed 15/15 main targets of 2025.

Notably, macroeconomic stability was maintained, economic growth was high, inflation was controlled, major balances were ensured, and public debt and budget deficit were much lower than the allowable limits.

GDP growth in the first 9 months reached 7.85% over the same period, the whole year is estimated at 8%, achieving the target of the Central Government and the National Assembly, the highest in the region and among the top in the world; 32/34 localities estimated GRDP growth in 2025 from 8% or higher, of which 13/34 localities from 10% or higher. GDP scale is estimated at about 510 billion USD, ranking 32nd in the world and 4th in ASEAN; GDP per capita is estimated at over 5,000 USD, becoming an upper middle-income country.

State budget revenue in the first 9 months reached 1.92 million billion VND, equal to 97.9% of the estimate, up 30.5% over the same period, while the reduction and extension of taxes, fees and charges in the first 9 months of 2025 was about 200,000 billion VND. Credit growth improved, lending interest rates decreased; preferential credit packages were actively implemented, especially for the agriculture, forestry and fishery sectors. The average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate in the first 9 months increased by 3.27%, the whole year is estimated at about 4%, lower than the set target (4.5-5%). Energy security, food security, and labor balance are ensured.

Total registered FDI capital in the first 9 months reached over 28.5 billion USD, up 15.2% over the same period, realized FDI capital was about 18.8 billion USD, up 8.5%. Total import-export turnover in the first 9 months was 680.66 billion USD, up 17.3% over the same period, of which exports reached 348.74 billion USD, up 16%, trade surplus is estimated at 16.82 billion USD. Total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue in the first 9 months increased by 9.5% over the same period; e-commerce in 2025 is estimated to increase by 25%; promote prevention and combat of trade fraud, origin fraud, counterfeit goods, and fake goods.

Production and business growth is positive. It is estimated that in 2025, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector will grow by about 4%, the highest in the past 10 years, the processing and manufacturing industry will increase by 10.71%; the service sector will increase by 8.26%. International visitors will increase sharply, striving to attract 25 million international visitors in 2025, an increase of 42% compared to 2024.

In the 2026 plan, the Government determined to continue to prioritize promoting growth in association with maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and ensuring major balances of the economy, public debt, and state budget deficit within prescribed limits. Closely, flexibly and effectively coordinate a reasonable, focused, and key expansionary fiscal policy, a proactive, flexible, timely, and effective monetary policy and other macroeconomic policies.

Strengthen financial discipline and state budget discipline, strive to increase state budget revenue by 10% in 2026 compared to the estimated implementation in 2025. Thoroughly save expenditures, resolutely cut unnecessary expenditures, especially regular expenditures; save and cut 5% of investment expenditures right from the budget allocation (to invest in the Lao Cai - Hanoi - Hai Phong railway project) and 10% of regular expenditures (to supplement sources for social security). Promote and renew traditional growth drivers, strongly exploit new growth drivers. Strongly develop the domestic market, stimulate consumption, enhance trade promotion; diversify export markets, expand and effectively exploit traditional markets; promote negotiations and sign new FTA agreements, the report stated.

Among the main tasks and solutions, the Government clearly stated that it would establish a new growth model, restructure the economy, promote industrialization and modernization, taking science and technology, innovation and digital transformation as the main driving force. Continue to develop manufacturing and service industries in a modern direction, by 2026 the added value of the digital economy will account for about 14% of the country's GDP. Ensure focused, key, effective investment with high spillover, definitely not scattered or fragmented.

The Government also said it will resolutely implement solutions to restructure the system of credit institutions and people's credit funds associated with bad debt settlement in the 2026-2030 period. Strongly develop the state economy; promote the private economy; selectively attract FDI projects associated with technology transfer; and strengthen connectivity between economic sectors.

Promote digital economy, green economy, semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, energy conversion. Focus on resolving obstacles for long-standing projects. Build, operate, and promote the effectiveness of the International Financial Center in Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang and new-generation free trade zones in some localities. Research, develop, and implement synchronous, feasible, and effective policies and solutions to develop supporting industries.

According to Investment Newspaper

https://baodautu.vn/du-kien-tang-truong-gdp-nam-2026-phan-dau-dat-10-d413233.html

Source: https://thoidai.com.vn/du-kien-tang-truong-gdp-nam-2026-phan-dau-dat-10-216995.html