Coffee prices fell across the board for this reason, robusta inventories remained at a more than 1-year low.

According to the forecast from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Vietnam's coffee output this year will decrease by more than 7%, which will be the smallest harvest in 4 years, causing concerns that global supply will be tightened further, in the context of increasingly high demand for robusta coffee. The above information has supported robusta coffee prices to increase strongly in the last session of the week.

World coffee prices, especially robusta, reversed and fell after the previous overheating session, as expected by the market.

This decline was contributed by new crop selling pressure from the world's largest producer and exporter, Brazil. Information about dry and favorable weather has helped Brazilians accelerate the harvest of new crop Conilon robusta coffee, which is in the final stage of the harvest, and the arabica crop is in the peak harvest period, combined with the decline of USDX, which is the main reason for the coffee derivatives floors to return to a weakening trend.

However, the decline was somewhat mitigated by concerns about supply shortages and forecasts of Vietnam's coffee output in the harvest later this year. According to the forecast from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), supply from Vietnam will decrease by about 10%.

Furthermore, concerns about supply shortages from the ICE – London inventory report on July 10 remained, as it fell by another 3,020 tonnes to stand at 56,860 tonnes, a more than 1-year low.

According to the National Coffee Federation (FNC) of Colombia, coffee exports in June reached only 748,000 bags, a sharp decrease of 20.34% compared to the same period last year. Therefore, the cumulative exports in the first 9 months of the current crop year 2022/2023 from this source only reached 7,808,000 bags, a decrease of 16.76% compared to the same period last year, which contributed to the decline on the arabica floor in New York.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 17/11: (Nguồn: Amazon.com)

Domestic coffee prices today, July 11, decreased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Amazon.com)

At the end of the trading session earlier this week (July 10), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased sharply. The price of robusta coffee futures for delivery in September 2023 decreased by 45 USD, trading at 2,576 USD/ton. The price of delivery in November decreased by 39 USD, trading at 2,436 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.

The price of Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for September 2023 delivery continued to adjust slightly, increasing by 1.05 cents, trading at 159.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2023 delivery decreased by 0.75 cents, trading at 159.3 cents/lb. Average trading volume.

Domestic coffee prices today, July 11, decreased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Change
USD/VND exchange rate	23,480	0
DAK LAK	66,000	- 700
LAM DONG	65,700	- 600
GIA LAI	65,800	- 600
DAK NONG	66,100	- 700

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

Technical analysis on robusta floor, technical indicators are giving neutral signals, price trend is not clear.

In the short term, robusta coffee prices are expected to fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 2600 - 2650. Robusta coffee prices need to increase beyond 2552 and maintain above this price level to find opportunities to increase further. On the contrary, it is necessary to pay attention to the price range of 2585 - 2590, if falling below this range, robusta coffee can establish a downward trend again.

In the Arabica market, technical indicators all show neutral signals, the price trend is not clear. It is expected that in the short term, the price may fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 156.5 - 164.5.

Arabica coffee prices need to break above the MA10 at 162.40 and stay above this level to have a chance to recover. However, if Arabica coffee prices lose the support zone near 159 – 159.5, a downtrend may be established.

Source