Expectations and realities of Premier League teams

Opta's expected score data shows that Chelsea and Newcastle are out of luck, while Tottenham and West Ham are the biggest overachievers in the 2023-2024 Premier League.

Opta can identify which teams are underperforming, or overperforming, by looking at the expected goals metric. This metric looks at the probability of a shot being scored, to identify which team is creating more dangerous chances in a match.

Based on expected goals, the world's leading sports statistics company recalculates the expected score in each match in the last eight rounds, from which it determines the expected score and expected position and compares them with reality.

The table above shows that Newcastle should be second in the Premier League based on their ability to create dangerous chances. Their poor ability to take advantage of their chances means they are currently eighth, six places below their expected level. Man City could be top if they took advantage of their chances better, and Chelsea could be in the top four, instead of being in the bottom half of the table.

Everton are the most disappointing, having been fifth in the table for quality of dangerous chances, instead of 16th. Excluding penalties, they have scored just nine goals, from an expected goal of 14.92 - which is around six goals less than expected.

Tottenham, on the other hand, are leading the table, despite being seventh in the table, which shows that Son Heung-min and his teammates are taking advantage of their opportunities better than their competitors. They have scored 18 goals in eight games, from an expected goal ratio of just 15.0.

Son Heung-min celebrates Tottenham's goal against Arsenal at Emirates Stadium in London, during the Premier League on September 24, 2023. Photo: Reuters — Son Heung-min celebrates Tottenham's goal against Arsenal at Emirates Stadium in London, during the Premier League on September 24, 2023. Photo: *Reuters*

Opta 's data also shows that Arsenal and Man Utd are almost worthy of their current positions, second and 10th respectively. The bottom three teams, Burnley, Bournemouth and Sheffield, are also worthy of being in the danger zone because the quality of chances they create is also the lowest.

Normally, the gap between expected and actual positions will decrease towards the end of the season. Because after 38 rounds, the probability of a team being continuously unlucky is not high. Therefore, Opta data is also a basis for assessing the positions of teams in the following rounds.

Xuan Binh

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