Will harsh winter cause trouble for Ukraine?

The lack of success of Ukrainian forces in their counter-offensive this summer and the heavy losses of weapons and equipment mean that Kiev must fight cautiously if it wants to maintain the initiative on the battlefield.

Despite the counter-offensive efforts of the past five months, the Ukrainian army has not yet broken through the Russian defenses, and Ukraine now faces a series of difficult challenges: maintaining pressure on Russia while reorganizing its combat units for further offensive operations.

Ukrainian army combat vehicles destroyed on the battlefield.

Battle situation on the battlefield

Both Russia and Ukraine will struggle to generate offensive combat power in 2023. The loss of forces, especially trained officers and soldiers with battlefield experience, has limited the organization and coordination of offensive operations.

Faced with a defense line with dense minefields, Ukrainian forces were limited in their operations. As they expanded their operations, they lost the synchronization of their weapons and support vehicles. Similarly, Russia also had difficulty coordinating and coordinating larger-scale operations.

For both Russia and Ukraine, the ability to scale up to be effective is limited by a lack of trained troops. Ukrainian units preparing to go to the front are training on a larger scale in locations far from the battlefield for safety reasons. Meanwhile, Russia is also having to call up reserves to maintain the strength of its frontline units.

Researcher Jack Watling at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) assessed that during the winter of 2022, much of the front saw intense fighting, but only limited efforts by Ukraine to change the front line.

However, the Ukrainian army's inability to make any breakthroughs has allowed Russia to build three vast defense lines of mines, trenches and obstacles, making Ukraine's offensive operations this past summer much more difficult.

If Ukraine does not continue to put pressure on Russia’s defenses this winter, there is a risk that they will be extended. So Kiev must balance its redeployment with the need to maintain pressure on Russian forces.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that Ukraine's counter-offensive campaign did not appear to have made significant progress against Russia's formidable defenses, but it also put more strain on Russia's human resources.

Ukraine's difficulties

Ukraine will face major challenges due to the shifting balance of power in weapons. This summer, Ukraine achieved artillery superiority for the first time, but saw ammunition consumption rate of over 200,000 rounds per month.

In the coming time, Ukraine will not have enough ammunition to maintain this rate of fire, while NATO's reserves are depleted and the rate of ammunition production is too low compared to the demand.

Meanwhile, Russia's domestic production has been transformed, the number of ammunition has increased rapidly. In addition, the West believes that Russia is also receiving supplies from a number of other countries, but Russia still denies the above information.

Researcher Jack Watling said that another challenge for Ukraine is air defense, Russian attacks on critical infrastructure will pose a major threat to Ukraine. Russia will gain a decisive advantage on the battlefield when its air force can bomb from medium altitude, significantly increasing the accuracy of attacks.

The Russian army is receiving more and more offensive weapons from the strengthening and expansion of the military industry's production lines. The number of long-range missiles produced has doubled over the past year. In October 2022, Russia produced about 40 long-range missiles per month, now they are producing more than 100 a month and are supplemented by a large number of Geran-2 drones.

An artillery battery of the Russian Army.

Furthermore, on October 18, UN Security Council restrictions on Iran’s missile program are set to expire. Russia has been in talks with Iran about missile deliveries after that date, expecting the Islamic Republic to be a boon for Russia’s winter campaign season.

Nearly 20 months of conflict have greatly depleted the military resources of both sides but there is still no sign of cooling down. Since early June this year, Kiev has launched a counter-offensive campaign and regained control of a number of cities and villages.

However, many opinions say that maintaining the counter-offensive momentum in winter will be a huge challenge for Ukraine because half of the energy infrastructure has been destroyed, which can disrupt military logistics activities. Moreover, winter can challenge the ability of Western countries to provide weapons to Ukraine, as these countries have to deal with the problem of energy supply tension.

Le Hung (RUSI)

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