Major rift between US and Ukraine over strikes on targets in Russian territory

Growing rift between US and Ukraine

When Vice President Kamala Harris met privately with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024, she told the Ukrainian leader what he did not want to hear: refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries — a tactic that U.S. officials believe would drive up global energy prices and prompt a more aggressive Russian response.

Rạn nứt lớn giữa Mỹ và Ukraine về tấn công mục tiêu trong lãnh thổ Nga. — Major rift between US and Ukraine over strikes on targets in Russian territory.

The request from the US side angered President Zelensky and his senior officials, who saw drone attacks on Russian energy facilities as a rare bright spot in a conflict of attrition against a larger, better-equipped adversary, according to people familiar with the matter. President Zelensky refused to heed the advice, and it was unclear whether it reflected a unified position within the Biden administration, the sources said. In the weeks that followed, Washington stepped up its warnings in several conversations with Kiev, including a March 2024 visit by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to the capital and several exchanges between US intelligence and defense officials and their Ukrainian counterparts.

However, instead of accepting the US demands, Ukraine intensified the implementation of the above strategy, attacking a series of Russian facilities, including an April 2 attack on Russia's third largest oil refinery, located nearly 1,300km from the front line.

The incidents have heightened tensions as Kiev awaits approval of a $60 billion aid package from the U.S. Congress . Ukraine’s long-range attacks, which have targeted a dozen refineries since January 2024 and disrupted at least 10% of Russia’s refining capacity, come as President Biden intensifies his campaign and global oil prices hit a new six-month high. U.S., Ukrainian and European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, spoke of differing positions between Washington and Kiev.

Defenders of Ukraine's strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Ukraine's military goals.

"I don't think the Biden administration wants to see high gas prices in an election year," Arkansas Republican Sen. Tom Cotton said last week.

Georgia Republican Congressman Austin Scott said: "While Russia attacks Ukraine's oil, gas and energy industries, why shouldn't Kiev attack these facilities?"

US officials also acknowledged that stabilizing global energy markets to reduce inflation is a priority of the Biden administration.

However, Europe believes that maintaining long-term support for Ukraine is also important. A senior US official commented: "Rising energy prices risk reducing European support for Ukraine." The military benefits of the bombing campaign that Ukraine is carrying out are also questioned, US officials commented.

The concern among military planners in Washington is that the strikes would do little to degrade Russia’s combat capabilities and could lead to large-scale retaliation against Ukraine’s power grid, leaving Kiev facing even greater losses than Moscow.

“UAV attacks do not completely destroy oil refineries and even parts of them, but only cause damage,” said Sergey Vakulenko, an oil industry expert, in an analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

According to him: "The Ust-Luga and Ryazan oil refineries returned to operation just a few weeks after the attack."

In recent weeks, Russia has launched a series of rocket attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leaving millions without power and raising concerns that the attacks could impact Ukraine's economy.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the strikes were a direct response to Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and other infrastructure deep inside the country. The Kremlin had previously focused its attacks on Ukraine’s industrial capabilities, an effort that some U.S. officials said had had only limited impact.

Ukrainian officials say the country now needs to protect its cities. Last week, President Zelensky sent Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to Brussels for the NATO Foreign Ministers' Meeting. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister's request to Western countries is to support Kiev with more Patriot air defense systems.

"I'm sorry to say this, but who can believe that the most powerful army in the world doesn't have seven Patriot batteries to provide the only country in the world that is dealing with ballistic missile attacks every day?" Kuleba said.

Different positions of the parties

The U.S. opposition to the attacks on the oil facilities has angered Ukrainian officials, who see the strikes as fair game amid Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine. They see the strikes as necessary to make Russia pay for its actions and send a message that Russia will not be safe until the conflict is over.

They also see the attacks as necessary amid shortages of artillery shells to challenge Russian positions on the front lines. US arms deliveries to Ukraine have slowed in recent months as disagreement over a $60 billion military aid package has stalled in the US Congress.

Some say US concerns about rising energy prices due to attacks on refineries are unfounded, citing the rise in prices due to OPEC+ production cuts and instability related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Some critics say the Biden administration's messaging on the attacks has been inconsistent, causing confusion among Ukraine supporters in Congress and foreign partners.

Asked about the attacks on oil refineries this month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration does not support Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory regardless of the target.

"We do not support nor facilitate Ukraine's attacks outside its territory," Mr. Blinken said.

US Defense Secretary Austin said he wanted Ukraine to target air bases and military infrastructure inside Russia rather than oil refineries.

The US stance appears to be at odds with Washington's allies in Europe.

French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said Ukraine was acting to defend itself and called Russia the "aggressor." British Foreign Secretary David Cameron also defended Ukraine's right to attack Russian energy targets.

"Russia does not appear to be limiting itself to attacking military targets or just attacking on the front line. It is attacking across the whole of Ukraine," Mr. Cameron told the Washington Post.

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