US intelligence may have detected early signs of Wagner rebellion

US intelligence has received information since mid-June that Wagner boss has planned armed action in Russia, although the scale is unknown.

The Washington Post on June 24 quoted US officials as saying that US intelligence had urgently notified the White House and other government agencies two weeks ago so they would not be surprised by Wagner's actions.

US intelligence at the time did not know the exact nature and timing of Wagner boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s plans for armed action against the Russian military, but they had enough information to tell US leaders that “something was going to happen,” said one official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “So I think they were expecting it.”

According to this official, over the past two weeks, US leaders have been "highly concerned" about what could happen, such as what situations could affect control of Russia's nuclear arsenal, with the biggest concern being instability due to armed conflict inside Russia.

US intelligence has urgently notified the White House and other government agencies such as the Pentagon and the State Department. Congress has also received intelligence information continuously over the past two weeks.

CNN also reported that the US Congress was also informed by intelligence officials last week about news related to Wagner.

According to US intelligence, the main reason for Prigozhin's actions was that the Russian Ministry of Defense issued an order on June 10 that all volunteer units must sign contracts with the army, which could put Wagner under the direct command of the Ministry of Defense.

Prigozhin leaves the headquarters of the Southern Military District after ordering Wagner forces to withdraw from the city of Rostov-on-Don on June 25. Photo: Reuters

Ukrainian military officials have also been monitoring Prigozhin’s movements since the June 10 announcement and are increasingly convinced that Wagner could mobilize forces against the military, a senior Ukrainian official said. Prigozhin has publicly resisted the Defense Ministry’s request to sign the contract, and Ukrainian officials are taking the possibility of armed action seriously, the official said.

However, Ukrainian officials did not know when Prigozhin would act. Ukrainian officials also did not know whether the US shared intelligence with Kiev about Prigozhin's plans.

US intelligence agencies believe Russian President Vladimir Putin was also informed that Prigozhin was planning something. "It is unclear when Putin was informed, but it was certainly more than 24 hours before Wagner acted," the US official said.

It remains unclear why President Putin did not act sooner to prevent Wagner from taking control of the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov and heading towards Moscow.

"If Prigozhin intended to drive a wedge between the Russian Armed Forces Command and the Kremlin, he failed," said a senior Western official.

Wagner boss in the early morning of June 24 sent thousands of gunmen from the Ukrainian battlefield to cross the Russian border into Rostov province after accusing the Defense Minister of ordering a missile attack on Wagner's training camp, causing heavy casualties. The Russian military denied this.

Wagner entered the city of Rostov-on-Don, the capital of Rostov region, and took control of the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. This force also advanced to the cities of Voronezh and Lipetsk, south of Moscow, prompting Russia to launch an anti-terrorist operation there to deal with it.

By the evening of the same day, Prigozhin ordered Wagner members who were heading to Moscow to turn around and return to their barracks to “avoid bloodshed.” In the early morning of June 25, the Kremlin announced that Prigozhin would leave Russia for Belarus and that he and other Wagner members who participated in the rebellion would not be prosecuted.

The Wagner rebellion is considered the biggest crisis Russia has faced in decades. Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council Dmitry Medvedev called the rebellion a carefully calculated plan to seize power.

Huyen Le (According to Washington Post )

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