Combating climate change: Slow but sure

Progress on climate change targets remains slow, but some substantial results have been achieved.

COP28 in Dubai will assess the progress of implementing climate change commitments of countries participating in the Framework Convention. (Source: Shutterstock)

For many, the Paris agreement at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP25) may not have achieved what they wanted. It was not binding, nor did it end the era of fossil fuels. However, it did set some rules for future COPs. From there, COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) will see countries for the first time assess what they have done and what they have not done, and work together towards the ultimate goal.

Positive milestone…

In some respects, the results of global efforts to combat climate change have been more positive than many predicted. At COP25, experts predicted that by 2100, the Earth could be as much as 3 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels if countries do not change their policies.

With the current policy, calculations show that global warming will fluctuate between 2.5-2.9 degrees Celsius. This is still a worrying number and seriously threatens the lives of billions of people. That does not include the unknowns in the implementation of the policy. But the change itself is a clear improvement compared to before.

Much of this progress is due to cheaper and more widespread renewable energy. In 2015, global solar capacity was just 230 GW. By 2022, it will be 1,050 GW. Countries have also developed and implemented more proactive policies. In 2014, only 12% of _CO2 emissions related to energy production were subject to carbon pricing, at $7 per ton. Today, that proportion is 23%, with prices nearly five times higher, at $32 per ton.

In 2015, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that _CO2 emissions would continue to rise until the 2040s. Now, the intergovernmental advisory body says that this category could peak in the next few years. After that, countries need to reduce emissions rapidly to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. Emissions are part of development, so helping to reverse this trend could be considered a successful start on the journey to combat climate change.

Of course, it would be wrong to attribute all of this progress to COP25 in Paris. But the process it initiated raised expectations, making climate a national issue. And by pledging to reduce _CO2 emissions and remove them from the atmosphere, COP25 brought the goal of net-zero emissions to the masses. In 2015, only one country had made such a commitment. Eight years later, there are 101.

As the world faces increasingly extreme weather events, such as Brazil’s unusual spring heatwave last week, the COP is an important forum for parties to announce new ideas and seek side agreements. Recent statements by US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have given momentum to a deal on methane emissions ahead of the COP. The two countries also pledged to triple their renewable energy output by 2030, a target the UAE hopes to promote at COP28 this year.

Recently, the US and China made important commitments to combat climate change, contributing to promoting the agreement on methane emissions. In the photo: US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Change John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, before their meeting in Beijing, China in July 2023. (Source: Reuters)

…on the long journey

However, this does not mean that the COP mechanism has single-handedly “saved” the world.

First, the Paris COP25 agreement created a framework for renewable energy development, but it did not provide the necessary funding for it. According to BloombergNEF, a US-based energy research organization, the world will need to double the level of investment to triple the required renewable energy production.

Much of that capital will come from the private sector, but the impetus for such investment will come from the state. Governments must restructure energy markets, speed up licensing, rapidly expand grids, and eliminate policies that favor fossil fuels.

Even if things go smoothly, climate change won’t stop anytime soon. The main cause of global warming is the buildup of CO ₂ in the atmosphere. As long as net emissions continue, temperatures will rise. Since COP25, global warming has reached a point where it can no longer be ignored. Recent climate changes are proof of that: the past July, August, September and October have all broken temperature records for years.

This rapid pace of change will not last forever. However, the only way to stop global warming before reaching net zero emissions is to reduce the amount of sunlight the Earth absorbs, either by injecting “seeds” into the stratosphere or by whitening clouds over the oceans. This idea of ​​“solar geoengineering” has many scientists , activists and policymakers worried. Some countries think otherwise. At that point, the world needs to discuss this issue at the international level, clarifying the limits and impacts of such initiatives.

The world also needs to discuss CO ₂ removal mechanisms in more depth. Like “solar geoengineering”, this process is also of interest to many, especially oil companies, who see it as a reason to continue maintaining their production. This could make the fight against climate change more difficult. In this context, countries need to be clear about their CO ₂ removal plans in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), due in 2025.

Ultimately, the COP alone cannot change the world. But it can help shape the issues, the agenda, and the rules that drive it. While the world has a long way to go on the road to combating climate change, the COP can be proud of what it has done for the planet.

Ultimately, the COP alone cannot change the world. But it can help shape the issues, the agenda, and the rules that drive it. While the world has a long way to go on the road to combating climate change, the COP can be proud of what it has done for the planet.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/chong-bien-doi-khi-hau-cham-nhung-chac-251785.html