Stocks can 'compress springs', what should investors do?

Fluctuating around 1,660 points

The VN-Index experienced a volatile trading week from September 22 to September 26 with many sessions of large increases and decreases. The positive point is that the main index has recovered to the 1,660 point area, a slight increase of 2 points compared to the end of last week.

The market last week showed a breadth of correction and accumulation. Sectors that recorded positive developments included construction, along with recovery in insurance, oil and gas and industrial zones. On the contrary, many key sectors were under significant correction pressure, such as technology-telecommunications, steel, retail, ports, real estate, securities, fertilizers and chemicals. This divergence reflects investors' cautious sentiment in the absence of clear opportunities.

Next week, the stock market may be in a state of 'spring compression'. (Illustration photo).

Predicting the market's performance next week, SHS Securities experts said that the short-term trend of VN-Index is currently accumulating less positively below the resistance zone around 1,665 points, corresponding to the average price zone of 20 sessions. Many stocks, after peaking at the end of August, have gone through a period of adjustment and accumulation, and are currently trying to overcome the short-term downtrend.

However, experts also warn that most will try to recover near the old peak and may face selling pressure again. VN-Index is expected to retest the price zone around 1,680 points, corresponding to the price zone in early September. The market is fluctuating in a narrow range after a period of strong price increase.

In the longer term, SHS experts believe that VN-Index is accumulating after a period of strong price increases, surpassing the historical peak in 2022.

" For the VN-Index to improve, the market needs new growth momentum. This is based on fundamental valuation factors, growth prospects in the final period of the year and a cautious assessment based on the expected business results in the third quarter of this year ," the SHS report emphasized.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Thai Hoc, analyst of Pinetree Securities, also said that the trend of VN-Index will be quite difficult to predict when the market is in a state of tug-of-war, liquidity is declining and cash flow has not yet clearly spread. This situation is unlikely to last long, it is highly likely that the banking group, after more than 10 sessions of accumulation with low liquidity, will soon give a clear trend signal, thereby deciding the next direction of VN-Index.

Next week, Mr. Hoc predicts that if there is no new factor causing increased demand, it is possible that the VN-Index may have to fall back to around 1,600 points to attract investors who are on the sidelines to participate in the market. However, the VN-Index is unlikely to fall too deeply.

" I lean towards a more positive scenario that banking stocks are likely in the process of forming a short-term bottom, thereby supporting the VN-Index to maintain its price base and opening up opportunities to challenge the old peak in the near future ," the expert said.

Phu Hung Securities Corporation also believes that the current trend is inclined towards hesitant sideways fluctuations, with the market psychology waiting for new information that determines the movement, when the possibility of a breakout or continued cooling down can both happen.

" In my opinion, the market will still lean towards cautious trading even when the upgrade results are announced, when capital flows have not shown much improvement. If the results are positive, the stock market is upgraded to emerging market status, it is also necessary to monitor the movements of foreign investors. The previously expected information has been reflected, so attention will be directed to actual buying activities or signals from funds and organizations, such as opening new trading accounts. This will be the basis to promote improved sentiment.

If the results develop in a negative direction, it may cause strong selling pressure on the market, because the cash flow is inherently weak. The securities group, banks and large-cap stocks will be directly affected by this development, " the analysis company's report said.

Should you put money in the market?

Ms. Nguyen Thi Thao Nhu - Director of Investment Consulting for Individual Clients, Rong Viet Securities - said that the market is in a state of "spring compression". Low liquidity is not necessarily negative, but reflects the accumulation of energy, only needing a strong catalyst, the cash flow can return quickly.

Stocks can 'compress springs', what should investors do? (Illustration photo)

She predicts that the stock market scenario in the future will have two possibilities. If upgraded, the market will certainly benefit psychologically and expect new foreign capital flows. This is an important boost, opening up opportunities to attract billions of dollars more into Vietnam in the medium and long term.

However, it is also important to remember that this expectation has partly reflected the increase from April to July 2025, when the VN-Index increased by more than 600 points with record liquidity. Therefore, the price increase reaction immediately after the upgrade news may only be short-term, unless the money flow really enters strongly.

Meanwhile, if it is not upgraded, the market may react negatively in the short term due to lack of expectations, but I believe that the medium- to long-term trend is still positive. The reason is that the Government has been making efforts to reform to meet the criteria for upgrading and this will continue to be a driving force to improve the investment environment.

" In short, upgrading can be a "catalyst", but it is not the only deciding factor. The market can only increase sustainably when the cash flow really returns. If after the announcement date, liquidity does not improve significantly, investors should remain cautious, " Ms. Thao Nhu advised.

According to her, it is understandable that many investors are buying at the bottom around the 1,600-point support zone. However, when liquidity remains low, these buy orders are more exploratory than large cash flows entering the market.

For short-term investors, this is an opportunity to rotate capital, but must adhere to the principle of discipline: "Buy at support zones, sell when recovering, do not expect too much".

For long-term investors, the 1,600 point level is not a “deep enough decline” to buy and accumulate strongly. Instead, one should disburse exploratory funds with a low proportion and only increase when there is confirmation from liquidity and trends.

" I myself have also disbursed a small amount to test the market but still keep the stock ratio low to ensure the safety of the portfolio. This is a period that requires patience rather than haste ," Ms. Nhu shared.

Meanwhile, experts from Asean Securities believe that, with the short-term trading school, investors holding stocks should only maintain their current positions in stocks with safe capital values and maintaining a short-term uptrend.

Meanwhile, investors with a high cash ratio can observe and wait for new disbursement points with groups of stocks that have a supporting story (banks, securities, real estate...). New purchases should only be made in the direction of partial disbursement.

With the long-term buy and hold school, increasing the proportion should only be done when the market appears to decline, prioritizing observing the leading stocks and maintaining the profit growth prospect in the period 2025 - 2026.

Experts from Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company believe that in the coming sessions, the market will likely continue to move sideways with cash flow flowing to mid- and small-cap stocks in the groups that increased strongly last week.

Therefore, priority should be given to keeping a higher stock weight and adjusting to the general market's correction to increase the stocks purchased and make a profit in the sessions of next week.

Ngoc Vy

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/chung-khoan-co-the-nen-lo-xo-nha-dau-tu-nen-lam-gi-ar967953.html