How will the stock market perform this new week after 8 consecutive weeks of increase?

The market ended last week with many fluctuations, VN-Index almost flat. Profit-taking pressure appeared after 8 consecutive weeks of increase, is the stock market about to enter a deeper correction?

VN-Index increased only 0.01% last week - Photo: QUANG DINH

New cash flow opportunities

* Mr. Do Bao Ngoc, Deputy General Director of Vietnam Construction Securities:

- In recent sessions, the upward trend has slowed down, and profit-taking pressure has increased. However, compared to the general trend of many financial markets in the world , Vietnamese stocks are still relatively positive.

The risk of a correction to the 1,300 mark or even lower is possible when large groups of stocks correct. But with recent stable high liquidity, any correction will be an opportunity for new cash flow.

Regarding important upcoming information, the market is waiting for FTSE Russell's mid-term review in early April and Q1 business results (from April 20).

With negative factors, exchange rates or the tariff story from the Trump administration are not new issues. In general, this period is quite lacking in information so the accumulation pause is also reasonable.

In return, domestic cash flow is quite strong in the context of stable low interest rates, high credit, and accepted inflation increase.

Overall, in the long term, the story of stimulating the economy through the Government 's monetary and fiscal policies supports the stock market. KRX, upgrading... all bring better confidence in long-term potential.

For investors holding stocks, they should maintain their holdings and take profits from some stocks that have satisfied their short-term profits. For medium and long-term investors, the opportunity for adjustment is an opportunity to increase holdings.

Global investment flows may turn cautious

* Mr. Dong Thanh Tuan - expert at Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam):

- March marks the season of shareholders' meetings along with the 2025 business plan - the profit targets of enterprises are expected to be a suitable measure to measure the growth prospects of the VN-Index this year.

Historical data shows that the average profit completion rate is around 103% for VN-Index, except for the 2022-2023 period (89-94%) due to the impact of unexpected events such as corporate bond defaults and consecutive interest rate hikes from the Fed.

The transportation, retail, and oil and gas sectors recorded higher volatility with median completion rates of 122%, 138%, and 136%, respectively, reflecting management's cautious approach to target setting.

Overall, the 8% GDP growth target in 2025 is expected to be a stepping stone for overall profit growth for the entire market.

Meanwhile, global investment flows may become cautious as US tariff decisions will come into effect, along with reciprocal tariffs to be announced in early April, which are risks that the market needs to carefully monitor.

Trading prospects in March are expected to be largely influenced by the shift of cash flows into sectors with better recovery and growth prospects (steel, real estate, securities and retail), while witnessing profit-taking pressure in leading sectors in 2024 such as banking and technology.

VN-Index is expected to continue growing amid mixed news from the international market surrounding the trade war.

Two scenarios for the stock market

* Expert of An Binh Securities Analysis Center:

With scenario 1: Increase to 1,340 - 1,350. Overall, during this period, VN-Index is likely to continue to increase in price.

During the uptrend, the market may need to consolidate and continue to increase to the 1,325 - 1,330 zone. However, in a positive scenario, the market will quickly increase to the target price zone of 1,340 - 1,350 without adjusting the accumulation.

At that time, investors' psychology can easily reach a state of excitement when good information is continuously released. The necessary action is to prioritize psychological management and portfolio management, avoiding Fomo following the increase of price line.

Scenario 2: Increase to 1,325 - 1,330, then adjust and increase again. The general market has increased for 7 consecutive weeks without any adjustment. In this scenario, when the market enters resistance zone 1 (1,325 - 1,330 points), there will be a correction and accumulation.

The market may retest the weekly breakout point around 1,305 points. This re-accumulation correction zone will be a new buying zone for stocks to move towards the next uptrend to the 1,340 - 1,350 point zone.

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Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-moi-ra-sao-sau-8-tuan-tang-lien-tiep-20250317094334734.htm