What happens if Russia builds an undersea tunnel to Crimea?

Russian military ships move next to the Crimea bridge (Photo: Reuters).

The Washington Post reported on November 24 that Ukrainian security agencies had information about negotiations between Russia and China in October on building an undersea tunnel connecting the Crimean peninsula with Russia, in the context of the Crimean bridge across the Kerch Strait being the target of multiple recent attacks.

The Kerch Bridge serves as a vital supply route for Russian forces and is Moscow's only land link to Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.

Ukraine attacked the 19km road and rail bridge in October last year and again in July this year. The bridge, which has a four-lane road and two-track railway, is crucial to sustaining Russia’s military offensive in southern Ukraine.

Satellite images obtained by Newsweek show damage to the Kerch Bridge railway line after the second Ukrainian attack, which the British Ministry of Defense assessed as a significant “security burden” for Moscow.

Crimea peninsula in southern Ukraine (Photo: BBC).

According to the Washington Post , Russian and Chinese business executives are said to hope that building a tunnel to the Crimean peninsula will establish a new transport route and avoid attacks from Ukraine.

According to Newsweek , President Vladimir Putin is said to have signaled his desire to build an undersea tunnel connecting Russian territory and the Crimean peninsula in 2014 when Russia annexed the peninsula. Russian Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov said at the time: "The option of building a tunnel under the Kerch Strait will also be considered."

However, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told Newsweek that the undersea tunnel "will be vulnerable during construction as well as after completion."

Mr. Hodges commented that it would not be easy for Russia to build this project.

“There are real technical challenges associated with the idea of ​​building this tunnel. The bottom of the Black/Azov Sea in that area is not ideal for even the Kerch bridge, so seismic activity would be a real problem for the tunnel,” Mr Hodges said.

Keir Giles, senior fellow with the Russia and Eurasia program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, told Newsweek that the undersea tunnel would still pose problems for Russia.

“If the tunnel is actually built, it will be a safer route to and from the Crimean peninsula, but it is still a chokepoint and a vulnerable point, and as long as the conflict continues, anyone passing through this tunnel will feel extremely nervous,” said expert Giles.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War assessed in August that Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure linking Crimea to southern Ukraine and mainland Russia were affecting Moscow’s ability to transport resources, and were hampering Russia’s efforts to counter Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive.

Kiev has claimed responsibility for some of the attacks. Observers say Ukraine appears to be trying to cut off Russia's land corridor from Crimea to Ukraine's eastern and southern provinces.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/chuyen-gi-xay-ra-neu-nga-xay-duong-ham-duoi-bien-noi-crimea-20231125074829839.htm