Vietnamese coffee prices fall following world prices, will they fall further?

This week, coffee prices have dropped by VND5,000/kg, even falling quite deeply compared to the price at the beginning of June. Increased supply is considered the main reason for the price drop.

Increased supply is considered the main reason for the price drop - Photo: N.TRI

Domestically, according to information from growers and agents, the price of green coffee beans traded on July 13 was relatively stable compared to yesterday. Specifically, in Lam Dong province, coffee prices were generally between 89,000 and 90,000 VND/kg. In Dak Lak province, coffee was purchased at around 90,000 VND/kg.

In Dak Nong (Lam Dong province) and Gia Lai province, traders traded at 90,000 and 90,500 VND/kg, respectively.

However, if the domestic coffee market has decreased by around 5,000 VND this week, compared to the beginning of June, the current price has decreased by 27,000-28,000 VND/kg, which is a quite strong decrease.

In the world , prices on the London and New York exchanges in the trading session on July 12 decreased relatively compared to the previous session. Specifically, the price of Robusta on the London exchange for delivery in September 2025 was anchored at 3,216 USD/ton; the delivery term in November 2025 remained at 3,170 USD/ton.

Meanwhile, on the New York floor, the price of Arabica for September 2025 delivery remained unchanged at 286.50 cents/lb. And the December 2025 delivery term remained unchanged at 280.45 cents/lb.

If summed up this week, the global coffee market has plummeted as the price of Robusta for September 2025 delivery lost about 12.16%, while Arabica decreased by nearly 6%. The reason for the sharp decline comes from many factors, but the main reason is still due to the increase in supply.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global coffee production in the 2024-2025 crop year to reach 174.4 million bags, up nearly 3% from the previous crop. Brazil leads with 65 million bags, Vietnam with 31 million bags (up 6.9%), and Indonesia with 11.25 million bags.

In a recent interview with Tuoi Tre Online , a representative of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association said that the increasing world coffee supply is the main reason why the price of this commodity has plummeted from a peak of 135,000 VND/kg (early 2025) to the current level.

"In the next few months, prices may fall further if demand does not increase as much as supply, especially after Brazil, a leading Robusta producing country, Vietnam, will enter its harvest season in late October.

However, in the short term, prices may fluctuate wildly because coffee products are greatly influenced by speculative activities, financial investments, the world political situation, and exchange rate fluctuations.

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NGUYEN TRI

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/gia-ca-phe-viet-giam-theo-da-gia-the-gioi-co-giam-them-20250713151053745.htm