Lack of liquidity, index under pressure to reach 1,250 points

Stock market perspective week 16-20/9: Lack of liquidity, index under pressure to reach 1,250 points

VN-Index may continue to face correction pressure to the 1,250 point price zone and recover to retest the current nearest resistance zone around 1,265 points.

VN-Index trading this week continued to be a week of decline with low liquidity. The highlight of trading took place on Tuesday (September 10) when VN-Index fell -12.5 points before having 3 sessions of the weekend all moving sideways within a narrow range.

At the end of the week, the VN-index recorded a decrease of more than 4 points and closed at 1251.71 points. Although liquidity increased slightly compared to the previous session, it was still at the lowest level since the beginning of the year, which showed a lack of vitality in both buying and selling directions.

Market breadth at the end of the week was slightly tilted towards the selling side with 147 stocks decreasing in price, 142 stocks increasing in price, and 67 stocks remaining unchanged at HOSE.

Liquidity on both exchanges this week was higher than the previous post-holiday trading week (due to having 5 trading sessions compared to 3 sessions last week), but the average trading value per session on the 3 exchanges decreased by 21.29%, in which the matched value at HOSE in the last 2 trading sessions of the week decreased to below 10,000 billion VND and was the lowest since October 30, 2023.

Foreign investors continued to net sell with -1,122.65 billion VND at HOSE, focusing on MSN (-316.83 billion), HPG (-309.95 billion), VPB (-249.19 billion) and MWG (-211.18 billion)... in the opposite direction, net boughtFPT (+238.27 billion), CTG (+128.62 billion)...

In general, the index's recovery momentum shows signs of slowing down at the 1260 point area when demand is not convincing enough. Accordingly, the support level of 1250 points is showing signs of being challenged again and the index's correction scenario is still continuing. The low liquidity issue is worth noting, but experts say it is not too worrying, the signs are only showing that this is a short-term phenomenon when under pressure on psychology and scores. Cash flow is still waiting for disbursement opportunities when the stock market is still one of the investment channels with the best average performance since the beginning of the year ~ 10-13%.

Agriseco Research experts commented that the VN-Index continuously adjusted with low liquidity, reflecting the cautious psychology of investors during the information trough period. The level of market adjustment is not much and the selling pressure has not increased significantly, showing that the risk at the present time is not high. However, the market will need to form a balance zone to help stabilize investor psychology and return cash flow to help the index go up.

In the current context, the Fed is preparing to lower interest rates and US economic data also shows positive signs, strengthening confidence in a soft landing, which has helped the world stock market rise. In the Vietnamese market, when the information slump in September passes, information on business results and macroeconomics in the third quarter will gradually be revealed, helping to motivate cash flow to return to the market.

After the recent correction, Agriseco Research said that steel stocks have a relatively deep discount of 20-30% from the mid-term peak. Thereby, steel stocks have become more attractive to investors in the market.

Besides the steel group, many other industry groups have lower declines but also open up opportunities for investors to monitor and disburse, such as the export group (seafood, textiles, rubber); the banking group; and the securities group.

In the coming period, cash flow may be differentiated between industry groups based on business prospects and individual investment stories of each stock group. September will be a pivotal month for the Vietnamese stock market before macroeconomic data and corporate profits in the third quarter of 2024 are announced. With the expectation that the market will accumulate and go up, investors can implement a disbursement strategy during market corrections.

Many opinions say that this is a relatively reasonable price range for the market's growth prospects, with the expectation that the market will gradually differentiate, possibly opening up many reasonable accumulation positions based on the business's growth prospects and business results in the third quarter of 2024.

However, short-term cash flow has not increased well, so next week, VN-Index may still be under pressure to correct to the 1,250 point area.

It is expected that next week, VN-Index may continue to be under pressure to correct to the 1,250 point price range and recover to retest the current nearest resistance zone around 1,265 points. For short-term trading positions, it is advisable to wait for VN-Index to overcome the correction trend that has lasted since the end of August.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-16-209-hut-thanh-khoan-chi-so-chiu-ap-luc-ve-vung-1250-diem-d225006.html