Estonia vs Italy Prediction, 01:45 October 12: Win for hope

TPO - Football analysis Estonia vs Italy, World Cup 2026 qualifiers at 01:45 on October 12 - information on forces, expected lineup, form, history of confrontation. Italy knows that they must get 3 points to put pressure on the top team Norway, and meeting Estonia is a great opportunity to do that.

Pre-match comments Estonia vs Italy

Italy's return to the World Cup after two consecutive misses was derailed from the start with a defeat to Norway in the opening match, which saw Luciano Spalletti's reign collapse immediately after the win over Moldova. Under new coach Gennaro Gattuso, the Azzurri earned six points from two matches against Estonia and Israel, giving them hope of a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup. Now their task is quite simple. Before meeting Norway again in the final match, Gattuso's team must win a maximum of nine points from the next three encounters.

To be honest, Italy have yet to become a strong team, true to the image of the team that won the world championship four times. Coach Gattuso's fiery style also has the potential to cause internal disputes, as when he had a verbal spat with captain Gianluigi Donnarumma after the match against Israel in September.

However, as long as they don't do too badly and their key players shine at the right time, Italy can easily overcome Estonia tonight. The Northern European team is ranked 129th in the FIFA rankings, 119 places below Italy. Considered a weak team in Europe, Estonia has never been a worthy opponent for the Azzurri.

Form, head-to-head history Estonia vs Italy

In the past 8 encounters with Italy, Estonia lost all 8. They conceded 25 goals (3.1 goals/match) and only scored 2 goals in those encounters. There is a noteworthy detail, the 3 times Estonia hosted Italy at home, the total number of goals in the match never exceeded 3 goals.

Italy is on a 3-match winning streak while Estonia has only won 1/6 matches since the beginning of 2025 (1 draw, 4 losses). Looking back at the history of participating in the European World Cup qualifiers, Estonia only achieved a winning rate of 20.2% while the losing rate was up to 66.2%.

Estonia vs Italy squad information

Against a weaker opponent, Italy will likely play with a back four. They also have some personnel changes as Matteo Politano and Mattia Zaccagni are injured. Bryan Cristante could return to midfield while Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean will continue to play together up front.

Estonia have few options, and the 26-man squad is largely made up of familiar faces apart from striker Karel Mustmaa, who is called up for the first time. They also welcome back captain Karol Mets but veteran striker Henri Anier is suspended.

Expected lineup Estonia vs Italy

Estonia: Hein; Schjonning-Larsen, Kuusk, Paskotsi, Saliste; Shein, Palumets; Yakovlev, Kait, Sinyavskiy; Sappinen

Italy: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Orsolini, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali; Kean, Retegui

Score prediction Estonia 0-2 Italy

Source: https://tienphong.vn/nhan-dinh-estonia-vs-italia-01h45-ngay-1210-thang-de-hy-vong-post1786243.tpo