Standard Chartered forecasts moderate growth in Vietnam's economy

Standard Chartered Bank said that although short-term economic pressure in Vietnam may still exist, the economy's performance is better than market expectations.

Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 to reach 6.8%. (Photo: Vietnam+)

On November 5, in its latest economic update report on Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank forecast that Vietnam's macroeconomic data in October showed a growth adjustment compared to September, although key economic sectors remained relatively strong. This slight downward trend could support the maintenance of low interest rates. Standard Chartered forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth to reach 6.8% in 2024 (from 6.0%), with growth momentum slowing from the third quarter. The bank also forecasts that Q4 growth is expected to be at 6.9%. Retail sales are likely to reach 6.2% (from 7.6%), exports are likely to reach 6.2% (from 10.7%) while electronics exports have improved year-to-date. Imports and industrial production are likely to increase by 4% and 9.2%, respectively. Credit growth remained at around 9% year-on-year as of the end of September. Vietnam has recorded several months of surplus this year and the foreign trade sector has remained relatively stable. The monthly trade surplus may have increased to $3.8 billion in October from $2.3 billion last month, contributing to a string of surplus months this year. Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank, said that although short-term economic pressures in Vietnam may still exist, Standard Chartered believes that the economy's performance is better than market expectations. The government's push for stronger economic growth may support low interest rates in the near future. Inflation has recently eased but is likely to pick up to an estimated 3% in October and is expected to continue rising year-on-year, with the next increase expected in mid-2025. “Given the rising inflation trend and the potential weakening of the VND, we expect the State Bank of Vietnam to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points in the second quarter of 2025,” said Tim Leelahaphan.

Vietnamplus.vn

Source: https://www.vietnamplus.vn/standard-chartered-du-bao-kinh-te-viet-nam-tang-truong-o-muc-vua-phai-post989362.vnp