Taking advantage of room for growth in difficult circumstances

(CTO) - The latest international organizations have all lowered their global economic growth forecasts, compared to the forecasts made at the beginning of the year. The global trade outlook for 2025 is forecast to decrease in the context of increasing trade tensions and policy instability. For Vietnam's economy, forecasts also predict a slowdown in growth in 2025-2026, but Vietnam's growth potential is still better than that of other Southeast Asian countries.

Risks from trade policy

The World Bank (WB) has identified five key risks that could slow economic growth across the board. These include rising trade barriers and policy uncertainty; still-weak global economic growth; the risk of financial instability and tightening; falling commodity prices; climate change; and rising geopolitical tensions and conflicts.

The gloomy global trade outlook for 2025 will affect global growth (illustrative photo). Photo: My Thanh

As of June 2025, international organizations including the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations (UN), and the World Bank (WB) all revised down global economic growth by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points compared to the forecasts made at the beginning of 2025, except for Fitch Ratings (FR). Specifically, OCED forecasts global economic growth at 2.9%, IMF forecasts 2.8%, UN 2.4%, WB 2.3%, and the lowest is FR at 2.2%.

For Southeast Asian economies, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts growth of 4.7% in 2025, down slightly from 4.8% in 2024 but still robust thanks to increased domestic demand and tourism. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the World Bank and ADB forecast growth for the ASEAN and East Asia- Pacific region in 2025 to be lower than in 2024 at 4.7%. This reflects a rather gloomy outlook for global trade in 2025 due to increased trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global merchandise trade is expected to pick up sharply in early 2025 as imports buy ahead of expected higher tariffs from the United States. However, weaker export orders suggest that this momentum may not be sustained. In June 2025, the merchandise trade measure rose to 103.5 from 102.8 in March 2025, but the new export orders sub-index was only 97.9, suggesting weaker trade growth in late 2025 as businesses import less and reduce accumulated inventories.

Most major economies have been affected by changes in trade policy, especially the US tariff announcement. International organizations have lowered their US economic growth forecasts for 2025 by 0.3 to 0.9 percentage points compared to previous forecasts, with growth ranging from 1.4% to 1.8%, lower than in 2024.

For the Eurozone, the impact of increased trade tensions and policy instability will negatively impact investment and trade in these countries in 2025. The forecasted growth rate for the Eurozone is from 0.7% to 1% in 2025. As for Japan, growth is forecast to be below 1%; China's growth is below 5%, with forecasts of 4.6%, 5.5%, 4.2% and 4% respectively.

Regarding Vietnam, international organizations all believe that Vietnam's growth in 2025 will be lower than in 2024. In particular, ADB, AMRO and OECD forecast Vietnam's growth in 2025 to reach over 6%, 6.6%, 6.5% and 6.2% respectively. WB and IMF forecast Vietnam's growth in 2025 to reach 5.8% and 5.4% respectively. In particular, AMRO also noted that although Vietnam leads the growth in Southeast Asia, the growth prospects of the ASEAN+3 region depend heavily on US trade policies.

The OECD said that higher trade barriers and policy uncertainty are major risks to Vietnam's economic outlook, potentially undermining its growth. The WB warned of weaker global growth prospects and weaker confidence in investment, exports, and consumption. The IMF is optimistic that some countries, including Vietnam, may find opportunities to reshape their trade networks and positions in global value chains.

Make the most of opportunities

According to international organizations, the main reason for the worsening global trade outlook is the increase in trade barriers, especially tariffs, along with widespread and rising policy uncertainty. The IMF said that new tariffs by the United States and countermeasures by trading partners have pushed global tariffs to their highest level in a century. Trade tensions and policy uncertainty are having a profound negative impact on investment, business confidence and consumer confidence. Many companies are adopting a “wait and see” approach, delaying or cutting investment spending. Geopolitical tensions and rising tariffs are reshaping global foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns.

Despite the challenges, some sectors have shown relative resilience. The World Bank said global trade in services has been relatively stable, with tourism activity approaching pre-pandemic levels. The ADB said “regional technology exporters remain a bright spot, benefiting from strong global demand for electronics,” with the semiconductor market expected to grow 11.2% in 2025,…

Many economists predict that markets may respond to the new US tariff policy by increasing technical barriers to protect domestic industries. With these fluctuations, average commodity prices are expected to fall by about 10% in 2025 and will fall by a further 6% in 2026.

Meko Garment Joint Stock Company (Can Tho City) always focuses on innovation and technology application. Photo: GIA BAO

As a trade-dependent economy, Vietnam is easily affected by external developments, directly by the decline in exports and FDI inflows. However, the bright spot in the first 6 months of the year was the trade balance of goods with a surplus of 7.63 billion USD (in the same period last year, the trade surplus was 12.15 billion USD). With export turnover reaching 219.83 billion USD, an increase of 14.4% over the same period in 2024, of which the FDI sector accounted for 73.%%. In terms of markets, the United States is still the largest export market with an export turnover of 70.91 billion USD; China is Vietnam's largest import market with a turnover of 84.7 billion USD.

According to Mr. Tran Chi Gia, General Director of Meko Garment Joint Stock Company (Can Tho City), in the past 3 years, trade fluctuations have affected the company's product processing prices. However, the company has made efforts to improve technology, invest in modern machinery to increase labor productivity, although processing prices have decreased, the company still makes a profit. Currently, the company exports more than 90% to Japan, with the US market accounting for only 1%, so tax policies have not affected the business much. The company is only having difficulty recruiting workers for year-end export orders, currently the company has about 1,100 workers.

Despite the decline in business and investment confidence, Vietnam remains an attractive destination for FDI investors. Specifically, in the first 6 months of 2025, total FDI capital in Vietnam reached 21.52 billion USD, an increase of 32.6% over the same period last year. In particular, FDI capital has shifted to new production projects in the fields of high technology, semiconductors, AI...

FDI capital realized in Vietnam in the first 6 months of 2025 is estimated at 11.72 billion USD, up 8.1% over the same period last year. This is the highest amount of foreign direct investment capital realized in 6 months in the past 5 years. Foreign investors also highly appreciate Vietnam's efforts to improve the investment environment in recent times and many investors have plans to maintain or expand their investment in the coming time.

Article and photos: GIA BAO

Source: https://baocantho.com.vn/tan-dung-du-dia-de-tang-truong-trong-boi-canh-kho-khan-a188390.html