ADB raises Vietnam's 2025 growth forecast to 6.7%

According to the updated annual economic outlook report released on September 30, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down the full-year growth forecast for 2025 for all major economies in Southeast Asia, with Thailand and Singapore seeing the largest reductions of 1 percentage point. Only Vietnam's growth rate has increased slightly compared to the forecast in April 2025.

Garment exports, one of the products contributing to Vietnam's economic growth. Photo: Tran Viet/VNA

The ADB explained that the downward revision reflects a prolonged global slowdown, rising trade uncertainty, and domestic challenges. It also forecasts that the momentum from the “tariff rush” that boosted the region’s exports in the first half of the year will fade. For the Southeast Asian region as a whole, growth is forecast at 4.3% this year and next, down from the previous forecast of 4.7%.

Thailand is among the biggest downgrades. Compared to last year's 2.5% growth, the ADB now forecasts real GDP growth of just 2% this year, down from its previous forecast of 2.8%. For 2026, the cut is even deeper, to 1.6% from the previous forecast of 2.9%. US tariffs on exports, industrial production and a slow recovery in the tourism sector are the main reasons for the slowdown in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.

Meanwhile, Singapore is forecast to grow 2.5% in 2025, down slightly from the 2.6% previously forecast, and down sharply from last year's 4.4% growth. For 2026, the ADB revised the country's growth forecast from 2.4% to just 1.4%.

According to the ADB, the impact of US tariffs will weigh heavily on the Singapore economy next year as the proportion of Singapore's final demand is relatively high related to the US. The ADB report also noted that additional US tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will have a strong impact on Southeast Asia, with the pharmaceutical sector affecting Singapore the most.

Vietnam is an outlier in the region, being the only Southeast Asian economy to have its growth forecast for 2025 upgraded, from 6.6% forecast in April to 6.7%. In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached 7.52% – the highest in many years – thanks to strong exports, significant improvements in manufacturing and services, and a surge in disbursed FDI.

According to ADB, Vietnam’s economy remains resilient thanks to loose fiscal and monetary policies, which have boosted domestic consumption. However, production and exports have declined due to US tariffs, which could reduce demand for logistics, finance and business services. As a result, Vietnam’s growth forecast for 2026 has been reduced to 6%, down from the previous forecast of 6.5%.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/adb-nang-du-bao-tang-truong-nam-2025-cua-viet-nam-len-67-20250930183749944.htm