ADB: Vietnam's economic growth is impressive

According to ADB's forecast report on Vietnam's economy , despite major global challenges, Vietnam's economy will still achieve outstanding results in the first half of 2025.

Growth picked up to an impressive 7.5% year-on-year (YoY) growth rate in the first half of 2025 from 6.4% in the first half of 2024, marking the highest H1 growth rate since 2010. Industry and construction grew strongly at 8.3% in the first half of 2025 from 7.5% in the first half of 2024. A surge in new export orders before the US imposed reciprocal tariffs boosted the manufacturing sector to grow by 10.1%.

Although public investment has yet to meet the full-year target, actual disbursements have contributed to a 9.6% increase in the construction sector compared to 7.3% in the same period in 2024. Fiscal growth and the recovery of tourism and related industries have boosted services to an 8.1% increase. Agriculture grew 3.8%, showing resilience to external uncertainties and supported by price stability.

Vietnam's economy is assessed to have impressive growth.

A surge in export orders before the US imposed reciprocal tariffs boosted trade in the first eight months of 2025. Exports increased 14.8% to about $306 billion through August 2025. The fastest-growing major markets over the same period were the US (26.4%), South Korea (11.8%), the People’s Republic of China (9.2%) and Japan (9%).

Manufactured goods still dominate with 88.6% of total export turnover, up 15.6% over the same period. Exports of FDI enterprises account for nearly 75% of total turnover. Meanwhile, imports increased by 17.9%, reaching about 292 billion USD, mainly electronic goods, computers and components. The trade surplus reached about 14 billion USD, lower than the 18.8 billion USD in the same period last year.

FDI inflows into Vietnam remain strong, supporting the industrial sector. In the first eight months of 2025, FDI disbursement increased by 8.8% year-on-year to US$15.4 billion - the highest level for an eight-month period in the past five years.

According to the ADB report, inflation remained within the Government 's target range in the first eight months of 2025. Average inflation was 3.3%, lower than the previous year's 4.0% and within the target range. Food prices were relatively stable, while rents and utility prices increased, reflecting the increase in electricity prices.

Notably, headline inflation eased to 3.2% year-on-year in August from 3.5% a year earlier, driven by lower transport costs. In contrast, core inflation rose 3.2% on average in the first eight months of the year due to persistent price pressures from rising rents and construction material prices.

Regarding the outlook for Vietnam’s economy, ADB said the economy will remain resilient in 2025-2026, thanks to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The US reciprocal tariffs of 20% on imports and 40% on transit goods, which took effect on August 7, could impact short-term growth, but economic stimulus policies are expected to mitigate this impact.

“ Growth forecasts are revised up to 6.7% for 2025 and down to 6% for 2026 (from 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively, in the April 2025 report), while inflation forecasts are slightly lower than in the April report ,” the ADB report said.

According to ADB, inflation is forecast at 3.9% in 2025 and slightly decline to 3.8% in 2026. Falling global energy prices have contributed to reducing transportation costs - a factor that accounts for a significant proportion of the consumer goods basket.

However, the government’s continued upward adjustments in health care, education and electricity prices continue to create inflationary pressures. Accelerated public investment disbursement and high credit growth may increase the prices of materials and services.

Ngoc Vy

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/adb-kinh-te-viet-nam-tang-truong-an-tuong-ar968333.html