Sharp increase in intelligence budget helps Russian military reap sweet fruits

Russia's intelligence budget has increased significantly compared to the early stages of the conflict, helping them grasp the situation in Ukraine and launch effective attacks.

NATO and Ukraine have recently discovered a worrying fact: Russia's intelligence capabilities have improved significantly, allowing the Russian Armed Forces (RFAF) to launch surprise attacks. The UK's Sky News reported that on the night of September 13, a NATO weapons train arrived on the outskirts of Kiev, waiting to load more goods to go to the front line.

However, while the train was at the station, a Russian tactical ballistic missile hit the train, causing it to explode violently. The explosion destroyed all of the NATO weapons aid to Ukraine, as well as all of the ammunition that had been received before, but had not yet reached the front line.

The RFAF has recently stepped up its attacks on Ukraine’s weapons depots, especially NATO-supplied weapons. What NATO and Ukraine are most concerned about is not the frequency of the attacks, but the sudden and rapid improvement in Russia’s intelligence capabilities.

British news agency Reuters reported that NATO elite forces, mainly Romanians, along with British, Polish and French soldiers, are preparing to secretly infiltrate a secret military base in Vilkovo, Odessa province, Ukraine, to transport weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.

Fearing Russian airstrikes, NATO kept the operation a complete secret. The base chosen was not a conventional military base, but a tourist spot. NATO planned the operation meticulously, camouflaging its presence and placing the ammunition transfer center in a little-known tourist area, largely to avoid Russian detection.

However, Russian missiles struck shortly after NATO elite forces entered the base. Some information from pro-Russian underground forces in Odessa said that the entire NATO force was destroyed. Although there is no exact casualty figure yet, dozens of body bags transported secretly indicate that NATO has suffered heavy losses.

Russia no longer protested, but instead responded directly by destroying NATO arms and ammunition supplies. Key sites such as the Lviv Defense Plant and the Dnipropetrovsk Missile Repair Center were destroyed, and NATO weapons ships were repeatedly attacked.

Russia’s current stance on NATO arms and ammunition is no longer to object, but to bomb as much as possible. Russia’s improved intelligence capabilities allow it to accurately track NATO arms shipments and launch airstrikes as soon as they enter Ukraine.

A Ukrainian military intelligence (GRU) officer defected, revealing important information about the AFU to the Russian side. Russian media released a video on September 12, saying that a Russian special forces commander, codenamed Viking, revealed that a Ukrainian GRU officer had surrendered to Russian paratroopers in the Zaporizhia region.

After surrendering, the GRU officer handed over all his military secrets to the Russian side. This is said to have given Russia access to thousands of kilometers of Ukrainian military deployment areas on the southern front of Ukraine.

The defected GRU officer passed military secrets to Russia, including information on AFU defense systems, force deployments, operational plans, Western weapons and equipment movements, and NATO troop deployment plans. This meant that AFU battlefield deployments were completely exposed to Russia, allowing Moscow to use its intelligence advantage to control the battlefield.

As soon as the AFU deploys its forces, Russia will know its weakest points, allowing it to attack them. Ukraine currently has few reserves to draw on, as the Russian army outnumbers the Ukrainian army by more than three to one, and in some areas, by as much as six to one.

The AFU’s deployment simply exposes gaps in the defense system, allowing Russia to exploit them and launch targeted attacks. This is the fundamental reason why the AFU has been vulnerable in recent times.

Of course, the defection of the Ukrainian intelligence officer is only a small factor in the significant increase in Russia’s intelligence capabilities, which has enabled the RFAF to deploy “reconnaissance + strike” capabilities. The fundamental reason lies in Russia’s increased battlefield reconnaissance capabilities, which have made significant progress.

Russia’s intelligence spending has increased significantly, and the RFAF’s efforts to develop “reconnaissance plus strike” capabilities have shown initial success. After suffering significant losses in the early days of the conflict due to inadequate intelligence capabilities, the RFAF has begun to invest heavily in improving its intelligence capabilities.

The Russian intelligence budget for 2025 has increased by 217% compared to the 2022 budget, with the SSD receiving a 35% increase. Internal RFAF intelligence documents obtained by the Ukrainian National Security Service in January 2025 showed that Russia's virtual human resource pool, established through dark web forums and encrypted messaging groups, contained 123,000 profiles of potential candidates.

In addition to building intelligence lines, Russia has also invested heavily in intelligence and reconnaissance equipment, including reconnaissance satellites and medium-altitude reconnaissance UAVs. The Intelligence-Led Warfare Doctrine proposed by RFAF Chief of Staff General Gerasimov at the beginning of the new year emphasizes investment in intelligence operations.

As a result, the RFAF has medium-altitude reconnaissance UAVs, which allow for 24/7 reconnaissance, significantly enhancing its ability to monitor military activities over Ukraine and NATO. This is also the reason why Russia can always carry out precision strikes at the earliest possible time. (photo source: Military Review, Ukrinform, Kyiv Post).

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