Crude oil market is nearing a price storm?

In a worst-case scenario for oil prices as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, crude oil prices could double.

Warning that oil prices could jump to $120/barrel

In the meantime   With tensions between Israel and Iran escalating, the oil market is poised to surge as Brent crude oil prices surge to $73 a barrel. Concerns are growing about disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil shipping route. Although a worst-case scenario of oil prices reaching $150 a barrel is considered unlikely, analysts warn that prices could spike to $120 a barrel, affecting global inflation and many economies around the world.

As the Middle East descends into its most dangerous flashpoint in years, pessimists warn that Brent could surge past $150 a barrel if the worst-case scenario materializes – a geopolitical shock that shuts down vital oil shipping routes and sends panic through global markets. While that scenario remains remote, traders are starting to factor in extreme risks as Israel-Iran tensions continue to simmer.

Brent crude oil prices hovered around $73 a barrel in the latest trading session, up $67 from a week earlier, after Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran’s energy and military infrastructure. Tehran has vowed to retaliate, and although tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not been disrupted, concerns are growing that the conflict could have a major impact on this vital waterway.

Crude oil prices continued to rise as the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran raised supply concerns, said Rahul Kalantri, vice president of commodities at Mehta Equities. While Iran has signaled its willingness to de-escalate tensions and resume nuclear talks, uncertainty over further retaliation has kept traders cautious.

Singapore-based DBS Bank forecasts that crude oil prices could rise to as high as $150 a barrel if Iran's oil exports are completely cut off and regional producers cannot make up for the supply shortfall.

Israel’s current strategy appears to be targeting Iran’s domestic energy logistics system, not its export infrastructure, which may explain why the global market reaction has remained relatively calm, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil at Kpler.

JP Morgan – one of Wall Street’s biggest oil market players – said current prices reflect just a “7% probability” of a “nightmare” scenario in which regional tensions not only hamper Iran’s exports but also threaten the entire Gulf shipping lane.

JP Morgan said a major conflict that would shut down Hormuz was unlikely. JP Morgan maintained its 2025 baseline oil price forecast at $60-$65 a barrel.

Some warnings if oil prices spike

Analysts warn that if oil prices spike,   US consumer price index (CPI)   could return to 5%, complicating global central banks' plans to cut interest rates.

Brent crude prices have risen more than 10% since mid-June, when Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities prompted Tehran to respond with missiles at Tel Aviv.

Currently, about 20% of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's vital oil shipping route.

Iranian officials have said they would block the strait if Tehran’s interests were threatened. A prolonged closure could have major ripple effects on the global economy – the oil price shock would sharply increase inflation, making people pay higher prices for gasoline and shipping costs skyrocket.

Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official, predicts a jump in oil prices: “In an extreme scenario, if Iran retaliates with direct attacks or attacks on regional oil infrastructure, oil prices will surge. Even if there is no immediate retaliation, the market tends to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium.”

Citi predicts oil prices could rise as much as 20% if there is a disruption of 1.1 million barrels per day, but says OPEC's spare capacity will help stabilize the market.

According to Citi, if a disruption of 1.1 million barrels per day occurs, oil prices could rise 15–20% from pre-war levels, to around $75–$78 per barrel. If the disruption is larger, above 3 million barrels per day, Brent prices could hit $90.

Source: https://baohungyen.vn/thi-truong-dau-tho-dang-can-ke-bao-gia-3182253.html