80 years - Vietnam's journey from a poor country to a high-income aspiration

80 years after the August Revolution and National Day September 2, from a poor country, Vietnam has strongly risen to become the 34th largest economy in the world, with a GDP of 476.3 billion USD in 2024, and per capita income approaching the upper average level.

Continuing this journey, in just one day in the fall of 2025, our country inaugurated and started construction of 250 large-scale projects nationwide, with a total investment of 1.28 million billion VND. This is not only the result of joint efforts but also a symbol of the aspiration for development and the will to lay the foundation for Vietnam to enter a new era.

From a poor country, GDP now reaches 11.5 million billion

For many years, the World Bank (WB) has always assessed Vietnam as a successful development story, especially since the Doi Moi in 1986. Economic reforms since 1986 combined with the globalization trend have quickly helped Vietnam rise from one of the poor countries to become a lower middle-income country.

“Innovation has become the driving force for economic development over the past four decades, eliminating the administrative command and subsidy management mechanism. The country has overcome the crisis, Vietnam has become one of the most dynamic economies, with a remarkably increased GDP scale. In 1986, the GDP scale of the economy only reached 8 billion USD, by 2024 it is estimated to reach 476.3 billion USD, 59.5 times higher,” said Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam - former General Director of the General Statistics Office (now the General Statistics Office).

Data from the General Statistics Office shows that the GDP (gross domestic product) of our country in 1990 was only 41,955 billion VND and exceeded 100,000 billion VND in 1992 (reaching 110,532 billion VND). By 2006, GDP had surpassed 1 million billion VND.

GDP growth rate has been maintained steadily over the years, despite the global economic crisis and the severe impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. By 2023, Vietnam's GDP will reach about 10.32 quadrillion VND for the first time in history.

With a GDP of more than 11.5 quadrillion VND (476.3 billion USD), Vietnam's economic scale in 2024 will be the fourth largest in Southeast Asia and become the 34th largest economy in the world . Thus, after 34 years (from 1990-2024), our country's GDP will increase 274 times.

Similarly, the total national income at current prices in 1990 stopped at 39,284 billion VND, then increased to 106,757 billion VND in 1992.

In 2006, our country's total national income reached nearly 1.04 quadrillion VND. By 2023, the total national income is about to reach the 10 quadrillion VND mark, reaching nearly 9.79 quadrillion VND, an increase of 249 times compared to 1990.

Preliminary statistics for 2024 also show that our country's per capita income will reach 4,700 USD/person/year. This is an impressive figure compared to 2023 (4,323 USD/person/year) and can help Vietnamese people soon reach the upper middle income level in the world.

This income level is nearly 55 times higher than the figure of 86 USD/person/year in 1988 - when Vietnam began to open its economy, and more than 4.7 times higher than the level of 1,000 USD/person in 2007 - when Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The independent economic forecasting and analysis center CEBR (UK) stated that by 2029, Vietnam's GDP will increase to 676 billion USD, while Singapore's will be 656 billion USD.

However, with the 2024 GDP scale announced by the Government being about 26 billion USD higher than CEBR's estimate, and with the expectation that 2025 growth will break out to 8%, even increase by "double digits", it is not impossible that Vietnam can shorten the time to surpass Singapore compared to the forecast of 2029.

The growth rate of per capita income in Vietnam is relatively fast, surpassing many countries in the region such as Thailand, the Philippines... Most likely, Vietnam will enter the group of upper middle-income countries in 2025.

The economy specializes in overcoming 'obstacles'

“Vietnam is a country that overcomes crises faster than other countries,” the foreign partner told Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phuc Sinh, when negotiating with the business. Mr. Thong himself, known as the “pepper king”, also believes that: “A more open policy, oriented towards private enterprises, will promote Vietnam to develop strongly in the next 5-10 years.”

Mr. Chau Minh Thi, Director of Trieu Phong Shoe Company Limited, Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City Leather and Footwear Association, commented that the policy of orienting towards the private economy and promoting public investment is completely correct, meeting the requirements of the country's socio-economic development.

Foreign partners said they are choosing Vietnam as a market to buy products instead of many other countries. According to Mr. Thi, there are two reasons for this. First, the quality of products made by Vietnamese people meets the requirements of customers. Second, the business environment is developing and vibrant, so international customers are looking for it.

From poverty, Vietnam has risen to become an agricultural export powerhouse. Photo: Hoang Ha

A macroeconomic report released by Standard Chartered Bank at the end of July showed that FDI inflows into Vietnam have improved strongly, led by the manufacturing sector, followed by real estate. In the first half of 2025, disbursed FDI increased by 8.1% year-on-year to $11.7 billion. Meanwhile, committed FDI increased by 32.6% year-on-year to $21.5 billion.

According to UOB, the growth of realized FDI capital in Vietnam in the first half of 2025 is the highest level in the first 6 months of the year since 2021.

Regarding trade, Mr. Matthew Powell, Director of Savills Hanoi, said that in response to concerns about tariffs from the US, Vietnam has actively negotiated to narrow differences and find solutions to minimize the impact on exports. At the same time, the authorities have also strengthened control over counterfeit goods and goods in transit. Vietnam has also promoted the diversification of trade relations with other strategic partners, taking advantage of this opportunity to restructure the economy and reduce dependence on the US market.

Savills representative said that despite facing global uncertainties and trade tensions, Vietnam is still steadfast in promoting reforms and efforts to attract investment. Stable FDI capital flows and infrastructure development momentum show cautious optimism for long-term growth.

Regarding challenges for businesses, according to Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Business Association (HUBA) Nguyen Ngoc Hoa, the biggest barrier is currently the US tax policy. In addition to the reciprocal tax, the transit tax on goods is up to 40%, forcing businesses to ensure with the US about the domestic rate of Vietnamese goods. Therefore, businesses must reorganize the supply chain and improve the ability to trace the origin of products to meet market requirements.

Vietnam still needs to attract FDI capital, but there must be moves to make FDI enterprises accept technology transfer and increase domestic production content. On the contrary, domestic enterprises themselves must also rise up and accept investment to receive that transfer.

In 2024, the export turnover of goods will reach 405.53 billion USD, while the GDP will reach 476.3 billion USD - meaning that exports account for about 85% of GDP. This shows that exports still play a very important role in the economy.

Millions of hearts are united in building the country. Photo: Thach Thao

In the context of import markets tightening standards, if businesses cannot trace the origin and prove the transparency of the supply chain, they may lose the market. In addition, according to Mr. Hoa, green certification will increasingly become a decisive factor. If businesses do not soon switch to sustainable production, they will fall behind and risk being eliminated.

“Investing in green transformation, investing in digital transformation and investing to have the capacity to receive technology transfer are difficult problems. Because 98% of Vietnamese enterprises are small and medium-sized (SMEs), with limited financial capacity, large investments are a challenge,” he said.

Therefore, the Chairman of HUBA proposed to encourage pioneering technology enterprises to come up with shared solutions; that is, instead of having to invest billions of VND in a set of tools, SMEs will be shared by the leading enterprises in the form of leasing and paying monthly rental fees. This approach will help SMEs reduce the burden of initial investment. When small and medium enterprises adapt and develop, it will create widespread changes for the entire economy.

The 'Four Pillars' Bring the Country into a New Era

Our country has just rearranged its "country", the two-level government officially operated from July 1, 2025 in 34 provinces and cities. Along with that are innovations and reforms focusing on four breakthroughs: Resolution No. 57 on breakthroughs in science and technology development, innovation and national digital transformation; Resolution No. 59 on "International integration in the new situation"; Resolution No. 66 on innovation in law-making and enforcement to meet the requirements of national development in the new era; Resolution No. 68 on private economic development.

"These are the 'four pillars' of fundamental institutions, creating a strong driving force to move our country forward in a new era - an era of development, prosperity and strength of the Vietnamese people," General Secretary To Lam affirmed.

Vietnam accelerates towards high-income country goal. Photo: Thach Thao

Sharing with VietNamNet , Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV, Member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, said that if Vietnam's average GDP growth reaches 9%/year in the 2026-2030 period and 8% on average in the 2031-2045 period, by the end of 2045, the average national income (GNI) per capita is estimated to reach 22,600 USD.

Therefore, Mr. Luc believes that Vietnam does not necessarily have to grow at double-digit rates in the next 10-20 years at all costs to achieve the goal of becoming a developed, high-income country by 2045 as set out.

According to him, Vietnam needs to develop rapidly but at the same time sustainably, inclusively, ensuring macroeconomic, socio-political and environmental stability. It is necessary to control inflation at below 5%, budget deficit at 4-4.5%, public debt below 60% of GDP in all situations. Especially, economic growth must not be traded for environmental pollution and macroeconomic instability.

“To do so, we need to ensure the factors of structure, quality and efficiency in growth. With the economic structure, we need to calculate how to keep the proportion of the agricultural sector at a reasonable level, ensuring both food security and quality and value. At that time, how the industrial - construction and service sectors should be balanced appropriately also needs to be specifically calculated,” Mr. Luc said.

Proposing a growth model, Mr. Luc said that it is necessary to rely more on labor productivity, not too much on investment or capital factors. The growth model needs to carry out all three factors simultaneously: investment ; technology import and absorption ( infusion ), innovation ( innovation ) instead of sequentially as before.

Along with that, instead of the current 3 strategic breakthroughs (institutions, infrastructure, human resources), it is necessary to add 2 more breakthroughs: Science and technology - digital transformation and anti-waste.

Another particularly important issue is resource mobilization. According to this expert, Vietnam can consider four basic resources: institutional and policy reform; financial resources; land, resources and anti-waste.

In terms of financial resources, according to BIDV's research team's calculations, Vietnam will need to mobilize financial resources equivalent to 38.4% of GDP (about 250 billion USD/year) in the 2026-2030 period and 36.8% of GDP (about 500 billion USD/year) in the 2031-2045 period. Accordingly, it is necessary to strongly reform the financial sector to ensure sufficient resources and sustainability.

Reforms and breakthroughs through the "four pillars" of fundamental institutions will create strong momentum to move Vietnam forward in the new era. Photo: Nguyen Hue

However, he noted that growth needs to go hand in hand with risk control, as well as improving the effectiveness and efficiency of implementation.

In particular, it is necessary to ensure the successful operation of new provinces and cities with a two-level local government model, in which the administrative capacity of the head, the enforcement capacity of the public authority apparatus and the application of technology, data, and simplification of processes and procedures at public administrative centers... are urgent.

According to Prof. Dr. Ta Ngoc Tan, Permanent Vice Chairman of the Central Theoretical Council, Resolution 68 on private economic development sets ambitious goals, demonstrating the determination of the Party and State in making the private economy the most important driving force of the economy, contributing to promoting Vietnam's rapid, strong and sustainable development.

He emphasized that the resolution clearly stated tasks and solutions to improve the business environment; support businesses in accessing land and premises; support businesses in finance, credit and public procurement; support science and technology, innovation; support the formation of large and medium-sized enterprises, and the formation of pioneering enterprises.

“The change in thinking and new awareness in the Party's leadership and direction of the private economy is revolutionary, accompanied by a series of strategic, synchronous and specific solutions. The remaining issue is the efforts of the Vietnamese private business community; the maximum support and companionship of ministries, branches and localities... so that Resolution 68 can quickly come into life, aiming at the biggest goal by 2045, Vietnam will become a developed country with high income”, affirmed Prof. Dr. Ta Ngoc Tan.

Vietnam's economy after more than 30 years: GDP increased 246 times, income increased 17 times From a poor country, Vietnam has strongly risen to become a country approaching the upper middle income level. GDP increased 246 times after 3 decades, total national income at current prices is about to reach 10 million billion VND.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/80-nam-hanh-trinh-viet-nam-tu-nuoc-ngheo-den-khat-vong-thu-nhap-cao-2436260.html