Stock market performance 'strange', not as expected by investors

The stock market on October 7 continued to be submerged in red when nearly 480 stocks decreased in price, nearly double the number of stocks increasing. This development was contrary to the expectations of many investors about the inertia of price increase in yesterday's "green - purple" session.

Stock market under pressure to adjust - Photo: QUANG DINH

After yesterday's exciting trading session, the stock market today (October 7) returned to a cautious state.

VN-Index fluctuated almost only around the reference level throughout the morning session, liquidity dropped sharply back to a low level, while active selling pressure dominated, although not at a high level.

In the afternoon session, selling pressure increased significantly, especially in banking stocks, causing the general market to weaken. Many stocks in this group fell sharply, such as TPB (-2.52%), EIB (-2.47%), VPB (-1.58%), MBB (-1.83%) and MSB (-1.11%).

Not out of the trend, the stock group - which is being closely watched by investors as FTSE Russell will announce the results of classifying the Vietnamese market in less than a day - is also under pressure to adjust.

Apart from a few stocks that kept green such as SSI (+1.37%), VND (+0.85%) and CTS (+1.45%), most other stocks decreased, of which VCI lost 2.13%, SHS (-1.5%) and VIX (-1.19%).

Most other industry groups such as real estate, steel, and retail also fell in price. Many real estate stocks lost 2-4% of their market value, such as DXG (-3.06%), DIG (-4.13%), CEO (-3.94%), KBC (-2.78%), NVL (-2.53%) and KDH (-2.27%)…

In the steel group, HPG - a large-cap stock decreased by nearly 0.7%, while MSN - a representative of the retail industry also lost 0.6%.

On the other hand, Vingroup became a rare bright spot as it continued to support the market. VHM and VIC increased slightly, while VPL increased to its full range, helping the VN-Index narrow its decline towards the end of the session.

Finally, VN-Index closed the session with a loss of more than 10 points, falling back to 1,685.3 points. Total market liquidity was just over VND28,500 billion. Foreign investors continued to net sell nearly VND1,400 billion.

Previously, many experts and analysts predicted that the price could continue to increase after yesterday's exciting session. On the contrary, some opinions also warned that today's session the index would continue to approach the 1,700 threshold - a fairly strong historical resistance zone.

Experts advise stock investors before "G" hour

Speaking with Tuoi Tre Online , Mr. Trinh Thanh Can - General Director of Kafi Securities - gave two scenarios for investors to respond to when the time to announce the upgrade decision is approaching.

In scenario 1, the upgrade is successful. History shows that markets that have been upgraded, such as Qatar, UAE, Pakistan, or more recently Kuwait, have recorded an average increase of about 20-25% from the time of announcement to the time of taking effect (usually within about 6 months).

Stocks in the index basket added to the Emerging Market group often increase more strongly than the general level thanks to the inflow of ETF and active funds.

However, Mr. Can also noted that after the official upgrade took effect, most of these markets recorded an average correction of about 10-12%, due to short-term profit-taking and short-term cash withdrawals. After that, the market entered a more stable accumulation phase and established a new, more sustainable price level.

As for the scenario of not being upgraded, Mr. Can said the probability is lower, but still needs to be taken into account.

Accordingly, if the announced results are not as expected, speculative cash flow will be withdrawn quickly, possibly causing the VN-Index to adjust sharply in the short term, especially when foreign investors are still maintaining a net selling trend. Combined with the psychological pressure of disappointment, the decrease in the first few sessions can be quite large, creating a temporary "shake-out".

However, this is not a negative long-term signal in nature. Vietnam's macro foundation remains positive: GDP in 2025 is targeted at over 8%, inflation is under control, and listed business activities are generally still growing positively.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-dien-bien-la-khong-nhu-ky-vong-cua-gioi-dau-tu-2025100715233122.htm