Coffee price forecast for July 25, 2024: Unstoppable decline?

Coffee prices are forecasted to fall sharply on July 25, 2024, in the domestic market. The increase in the USD compared to the Brazilian real, along with increased inventories, has caused speculators to increase selling, pushing coffee prices down.

The conversion of crops without calculation, without control, for temporary profit and without direction from specialized agencies has been warned by localities and experts that it can bring many risks in the future. In the face of unusual fluctuations in the market, businesses need to be flexible in their business strategies to be ready to respond.

To ensure export quality and long-term sustainability, experts say that farmers, cooperatives and businesses should focus on improving productivity and product quality. Priority should be given to coffee plantations of varying ages, and concentrated coffee production areas to form high-tech production areas. This will contribute to improving the competitiveness of coffee products, forming concentrated production areas that ensure origin instead of massively expanding new planting areas.

In the first days of July 2024, Robusta coffee prices in the domestic market generally continued to fluctuate in an upward trend. The driving force for the sharp increase in coffee prices was due to the scarcity of domestic supply and the high price of Robusta coffee in the world .

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on July 24, 2024 as follows: According to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices increased by 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday, ranging from 127,500 to 128,200 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 128,100 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 128,200 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 128,000 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 127,900 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province the price is 128,000 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province the coffee is purchased at the highest price of 128,200 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 127,500 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today, July 24, in Dak Lak province increased slightly by 400 VND/kg; in Cu M'gar district, coffee was purchased at about 128,000 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 127,900 VND/kg.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Updated world coffee prices at 8:45 p.m. on July 24, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,387 USD/ton, down 94 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for November 2024 was 4,236 USD/ton, down 91 USD; the delivery term for January 2025 was 4,068 USD/ton, down 74 USD and the delivery term for March 2025 was 3,935 USD/ton, down 51 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:45 on July 24, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 227.15-232.55 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 232.55 cents/lb; down 6.55 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 231.25 cents/lb, down 6.25 cents/lb; the March 2024 delivery period is 229.85 cents/lb, down 6 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 227.15 cents/lb, down 5.75 cents/lb.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:45 on July 24, 2024 decreased slightly. Specifically, the delivery period for July 2024 is 289.30 USD/ton, down 2.16%; the delivery period for September 2024 is 283.30 USD/ton (down 2.39%); the delivery period for December 2024 is 287.85 USD/ton (down 1.62%) and the delivery period for March 2025 is 283.90 USD/ton, down 1.56%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

In the first 9 months of the 2023/24 crop year (from October 2023 to June 2024), Vietnam exported nearly 1.26 million tons of coffee, equivalent to 86% of the output (about 1.47 million tons) of the current crop year and down more than 11% compared to the same period in the 2022/23 crop year.

Excluding last year’s carryover inventory, Vietnam will have only about 210,000 tonnes left to export in the next four months until the new harvest takes place in November 2024.

According to some businesses, the country's coffee inventory is not much, mainly serving the domestic market. Businesses do not dare to risk signing new contracts when the price of this agricultural product fluctuates strongly along with the high transportation costs.

Previously, farmers in some areas massively cut down coffee trees to switch to growing durian. Now that this agricultural product has a good price and brings good profits, many people intend to switch back to this crop.

However, the conversion of crops without calculation, without control, for temporary profit and without direction from specialized agencies has been warned by localities and experts that it can bring many risks in the future.

*Information for reference only.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-2572024-tut-doc-khong-branh-334596.html