Robusta coffee prices drop to record low

Arabica coffee prices fell 6.92% to $6,526/ton, the lowest level in a week; Robusta coffee prices fell for the second session, plunging 10.63% to $4,834/ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the world raw material market was in red in the first trading session of the week (December 2). Strong selling pressure pulled the MXV-Index down 1% to 2,162 points. Notably, the industrial raw material group had 7 out of 9 items simultaneously decreasing in price, in which the price of two coffee items dropped shockingly by 7% for Arabica and 10.6% for Robusta. In a similar trend, the prices of most agricultural products also weakened.

Thị trường hàng hóa hôm nay 3/12: Giá cà phê Robusta giảm sâu kỷ lục

MXV-Index

Robusta coffee prices drop to record low

Closing the first trading session of the week, red dominated the price list of industrial raw materials. Among them, two coffee products made the market stunned when their prices simultaneously plummeted.

Industrial raw material price list

Specifically, Arabica coffee prices fell 6.92% to $6,526/ton, the lowest level in a week; Robusta coffee prices fell for the second consecutive session, plunging 10.63% from the reference price to $4,834/ton.

The Dollar Index jumped nearly 1% yesterday after Trump tweeted that he would impose a 100% tariff on BRICS countries if they tried to create a new currency to replace the USD. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Real weakened, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to surge 1.42% to a historic high. The widening gap has fueled concerns that Brazilian farmers will sell their coffee to take advantage. This has pulled money out of the coffee market, causing prices to plummet.

Moreover, profit-taking pressure after the correction session at the end of last week increased the pressure, pushing coffee prices to an unprecedented low in a single session. In addition, technical adjustments after the surge also contributed to increasing pressure on prices.

On the fundamental side, the market still shows some concerns about coffee supply in major producing countries. Notably, the persistently below-average rainfall in Brazil’s main coffee growing region has made the outlook for new crop supply negative. Somar Meteorologia reported 17.8 mm of rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee growing state, last week, which is 31% of the historical average.

Also concerned about the weather, Hedgepoint Consulting in its global market report forecasts Brazil's coffee output for the 2025-2026 crop year at around 65.2 million bags. Of which, Arabica coffee output is expected to be 42.6 million 60kg bags, down 1.4% from the previous crop. The firm also said its output forecast could change based on the weather conditions in the coming time.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands and the Southeast this morning (December 3) were recorded at 125,800 - 126,500 VND/kg, down 4,000 - 4,300 VND/kg compared to December 2. However, compared to the same period last year, coffee prices have now doubled.

Soybean prices weakened for the third consecutive session.

Soybean prices fell slightly by 0.43%, marking the third consecutive session of weak closing, according to MXV. The market was pressured by positive supply prospects from leading producers in South America such as Brazil and Argentina.

Agricultural product price list

Brazil's soybean planting progress for the 2024-2025 crop year was 91% complete as of November 28, the highest level for that period since 2018, according to a report from consultancy AgRural. Although planting has slowed in the eastern region of Mato Grosso and Triangulo Mineiro due to excessive humidity, AgRural stressed that overall, many soybean areas across the country show very good yield potential. Another consultancy, Céleres, said favorable climatic conditions in Brazil's soybean fields in the 2024-2025 crop year have reinforced expectations of a "bumper crop", with an estimated production of 170.8 million tonnes. The bumper crop is expected to result in exports of up to 107 million tonnes, the report said. Such large volume transportation needs will create higher demand for transportation services, thus, transportation costs are likely to increase during harvest time.

In addition, in the Export Inspections report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that soybean deliveries in the reporting week reached 2.09 million tons, down from 2.12 million tons in the previous week. Although there was not much change, this still raised concerns that demand for US soybeans has begun to slow down, which was a factor contributing to the pressure on the market yesterday.

Soybean meal prices fell nearly 1.4%, the biggest decliner among agricultural commodities, also due to the positive supply outlook. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said Argentina’s crops were in good condition after recent rains added moisture, which also weighed on prices.

In the domestic market, on December 2, the offer price of South American soybean meal to our country's ports increased slightly. At Vung Tau port, the offer price of soybean meal for delivery in January 2025 - February 2025 was VND 10,650/kg. At Cai Lan port, the offer price was about VND 100/kg higher than at Vung Tau port.

Prices of some other goods