Gold prices increased sharply thanks to the bottom of the USD, receiving more support, gradually moving towards a record level of 2,000 USD by the end of the year?

Gold prices today, July 19, 2023, entered an upward trend as the USD neared its bottom - its lowest level in more than a year. Although gold prices are stuck at $1,950/ounce, they can still end the year at $2,000, according to the latest research by Commerzbank.

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 7/19 AND EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 7/19

1. PNJ - Updated: July 19, 2023 04:00 - Website supply time - ▼ / ▲ Compared to yesterday.
Type	Buy	Sell out
HCMC - PNJ	55,900	56,900
HCMC - SJC	66,600	67,150
Hanoi - PNJ	55,900	56,900
Hanoi - SJC	66,600	67,200
Da Nang - PNJ	55,900	56,900
Da Nang - SJC	66,600	67,150
Western Region - PNJ	55,900	56,900
Western Region - SJC	66,800	67,200
Jewelry gold price - PNJ rings (24K)	55,900	56,850
Jewelry gold price - 24K jewelry	55,700	56,500
Jewelry gold price - 18K jewelry	41,130	42,530
Jewelry Gold Price - 14K Jewelry	31,800	33,200
Jewelry gold price - 10K jewelry	22,250	23,650

World gold prices rose thanks to support from a weakening USD, while investors waited for the latest data on retail sales from the US economy to gauge the path of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as inflation showed signs of cooling. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are expected to continue their cycle of raising interest rates.

Also weighing on gold prices is the US dollar, which hovered near its lowest level in more than a year after posting its worst week in 2023 last week. The greenback makes gold cheaper for foreign investors holding other currencies.

According to TG&VN at 9:15 p.m. on July 18 (Vietnam time), the gold price traded on Kitco floor was at 1,977 USD/ounce, up 22.5 USD compared to the previous trading session. The August gold futures price was last traded at 1,959.30 USD/ounce, down 0.25% on the day.

After hitting a three-week high last week, the gold market is seeing some profit-taking.

Gold price today July 19, 2023: Gold price increased thanks to the USD hitting bottom, receiving more push, gradually moving towards a record level of 2,100 USD by the end of the year. (Source: Kitco)

Domestic gold prices temporarily stagnated in the first session of the week, with little fluctuation in trading prices. Jewelry gold prices increased slightly.

Converted according to the current USD exchange rate at Vietcombank, the world gold price is about 55,035 million VND/tael (excluding taxes and fees). Thus, the price of SJC gold bars is still about 11,565 million VND/tael higher than the international gold price.

Summary of SJC gold prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of last weekend's trading session (July 18).

Saigon Jewelry Company listed SJC gold price at 66.60 - 67.22 million VND/tael.

Doji Group currently lists SJC gold price at: 66.50 - 67.20 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy Group listed at: 66.45 - 67.05 million VND/tael.

PNJ system listed at: 66.60 - 67.20 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 66.66 - 67.18 million VND/tael; Rong Thang Long gold brand is traded at 56.18 - 57.03 million VND/tael; jewelry gold price is traded at 55.55 - 56.75 million VND/tael.

Will gold prices soon return to $2,000/ounce?

New support for gold appears to have emerged at $1,950 and it looks unlikely that gold prices will fall below this level in the near term, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades .

“With other major central banks still in the process of raising interest rates, the US dollar is likely to remain under pressure, which could benefit gold prices. However, US interest rates are unlikely to start falling in the short to medium term, which limits the upside for gold prices,” said Ricardo.

Meanwhile, OCBC CEO Christopher Wong, also a foreign exchange strategist, said that although the upcoming Fed meeting may temporarily reduce the attractiveness of gold, the Fed is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle.

According to a new study from Commerzbank, the gold market could be stuck around $1,950 an ounce for the rest of this summer as the Fed has yet to complete its rate hikes. Thu Lan Nguyen, head of commodity research at the German bank , added that although she lowered her average price target for the third quarter, she still sees gold prices pushing back to $2,000 an ounce by the end of the year.

In her latest research report, expert Thu Lan Nguyen noted that the Fed's hawkish monetary policies will still be the dominant force for gold in the coming time.

Markets are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points later this month, and forecasts from June suggest the central bank could raise rates again after the summer.

“Previously, we not only expected the Fed to end its rate hike cycle in May, but also raised the prospect of the first rate cuts by year-end, which would give gold a significant boost,” wrote expert Thu Lan Nguyen in the report. “As precious metals are a non-yielding investment, the yield outlook in the world’s largest capital market, the US, is by far the most important price driver.”

In the short term, with gold expected to remain stuck at current levels for the next three months, Deutsche Bank forecasts the precious metal will end the year with a strong gain. Commerzbank economists expect the July rate hike to be the last Fed rate hike in this tightening cycle, Thu Lan said.

Commerzbank experts "expect gold prices to return to $2,000 an ounce by the end of this year as recession fears begin to rise. If next year, if inflation continues to fall and economic weakness makes even higher the possibility of interest rate cuts, gold will head towards all-time highs."

Meanwhile, according to some cautious analysts, the gold market remains very sensitive to the Fed's interest rate outlook. It is too early to predict a rally in gold prices after it just increased by more than $30 last week.

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