Gasoline prices may increase by 0.6-2.2% if the joint ministries do not set up a stabilization fund.

The Petroleum Institute forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by VND453 (2.2%) to VND21,043/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase slightly by 0.6% to VND21,196/liter in the operating period tomorrow, February 20.

A Petrolimex Tran Quang Khai petrol station (Hanoi). (Photo: Tran Viet/VNA)

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that in the operating period on February 20, gasoline prices could increase by 0.6-2.2% if the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by 453 VND (2.2%) to 21,043 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may only increase slightly by 0.6% to 21,196 VND/liter.

Meanwhile, VPI's model forecasts that retail oil prices this period will tend to decrease, in which diesel may decrease by 0.4% to 18,994 VND/liter, kerosene may decrease by 0.5% to 19,373 VND/liter, and mazut may decrease by 1.5% to 17,503 VND/kg.

VPI forecasts that this period, the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

In the world market, in the trading session on February 18 (US time), Brent oil futures price increased 0.8% to 75.84 USD/barrel; US WTI light sweet crude oil price increased 1.6% to 71.85 USD/barrel.

Oil prices rose first due to supply disruptions in Russia when a Ukrainian drone attack on an oil pumping station in Russia on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route caused the amount of oil transported from Kazakhstan to the world market to decrease by 30-40% on February 18.

According to Reuters calculations, the 30% cut is equivalent to about 380,000 barrels/day. In addition, the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk had to temporarily suspend operations due to the storm.

Previously, the oil export plan from this port in February 2025 was adjusted to increase by 0.24 million tons compared to the original plan, to 2.25 million tons, equivalent to about 590,000 barrels/day.

The world's oil supply was also disrupted as cold weather in the US disrupted oil production.

The North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimates oil output in the third-largest US producing state could fall by as much as 150,000 barrels per day.

However, the increase was somewhat limited due to the prospect of an early increase in supply, waiting for the results of the Russia-US negotiations to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could legally release oil supply from Russia to the market and increase the oversupply situation.

In addition, traders are also waiting for a clear signal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, also known as OPEC+, on whether the group will implement its plan to increase production from next April or postpone this decision to another time./.

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