Fighting is fierce north of Pokrovsk, but where is the main front?

Fierce fighting north of Pokrovsk saw the Russians attack from the flank and cut off the Ukrainian retreat, but where was the main front?

Recently, a shocking news came from Ukraine. According to Ukrainian media, Ukraine announced that it had won a decisive victory in the Pokrovsk region. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported to the President of Ukraine that a large number of Russian troops (RFAF) were surrounded by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) in the Dobropilya region.

Shortly thereafter, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took to the social media platform X to warmly congratulate the AFU on the important victories in Pokrovsk, Dobropilya and Kupyansk. He also revealed that in the Dobropilya region alone, more than 3,000 Russian troops were eliminated from combat.

General Syrskyi further stated that the Russian troops were surrounded in the Pokrovsk region, about 360 square kilometers of the Dobropilya “rock” had been liberated and the enemy was “on the verge of destruction”. Moreover, the AFU had liberated 168 square kilometers of territory in other areas of Pokrovsk.

However, the battlefield is always complicated and there is a lot of information that is "false and real". According to German journalist Julian Röpcke, a reporter for BILD, who went to the Pokrovsk front last week and directly interviewed Ukrainian soldiers fighting there, "The situation in the direction of Dobropolia is indeed quite complicated, but there is absolutely no encirclement of the Russian army".

From a military perspective, the authenticity of battlefield information is very important. Ukraine's grand declarations of victory may have many factors to consider. On the one hand, in the face of enormous internal pressure from the war, publicizing victory can boost public morale and strengthen national cohesion.

On the other hand, it aimed to demonstrate AFU's superiority on the battlefield to its supporting countries, especially the United States and European countries; thereby attracting more military aid and political support. Such unproven claims of victory, however, carried significant risks.

Further analysis of the troop deployments of both sides on the Pokrovsk front shows that although the Dobropilya area had the highest troop density on the entire Russo-Ukrainian battlefield, the forces were predominantly Ukrainian; consisting mainly of the 1st Azov Army and several AFU mobile reserve brigades.

On the RFAF side, the main force in the Dobropolye breakthrough was the 132nd Motorized Infantry Brigade. The RFAF had only reinforcements from the 51st Army and the newly deployed 336th Marine Brigade. Four other Russian marine brigades were concentrated on Poltavka, coordinating with the 8th Army in an attack north, creating a strategic squeeze on the city of Konstantinivka.

Based on this deployment, Ukrainian military experts believe that the RFAF's real target is not Dobropilya, but Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka. This view is partly correct, since in military strategy, the common tactic is to divert attention to the east and attack to the west.

The relatively limited RFAF presence in the Dobropilya area may have been an attempt to feint and draw out a larger AFU force. In reality, the RFAF was deploying its main force elsewhere, striking at more strategically important positions such as Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka.

If these two strategic positions fall, Ukraine's defense system in Donetsk will face a major crisis, and the entire battlefield situation could be fundamentally changed.

From a strategic perspective, the AFU's commitment to pledging all its reserves to Dobropilya carried certain risks, as its defenses, trapped in the "deep hole" east of Konstantinovka, were essentially abandoned. This revealed a potential imbalance in the AFU's strategic deployment.

In war, the rational organization and deployment of forces is very important. Concentrating forces in one direction, while neglecting to defend other important areas, can create opportunities for the enemy to exploit. It is possible that Russia continues to turn the “rock” of Dobropolye into a place to wear down the AFU’s troops, because at this time the Ukrainian army counterattacks, and has to fight completely outside the fortifications.

On the ground, although the AFU deployed its best forces and mercenaries to the northern front of Pokrovsk, in order to launch a counterattack, the results were not really positive. General Syrsky even claimed that they had broken through the northern salient along the Toretsky River, encircling the Russians from both the north and south.

However, Ukrainian observer Mashovits exposed the truth: the Ukrainian army has not surrounded anyone, and the situation is currently very chaotic. Over the past few days, the RFAF has launched a counter-offensive and achieved some success, turning the situation in their favor.

Take Nykanorivka as an example; the AFU had originally planned to advance towards Boikivka, but the Russians attacked the AFU flank from the north, not only recapturing a third of Nykanorivka, but also almost capturing the Merzha station - thereby completely cutting off the AFU's supply line at Nykanorivka. This completely disrupted the AFU's planned counter-offensive west of the Torets River, potentially leading to a reverse encirclement by the Russians.

However, the Russians face their own challenges: the entire battlefield is under close surveillance by Ukrainian UAVs. Meanwhile, Russian troops north of Mirnorad have not received regular supplies for a week, and road traffic is completely blocked. They now rely entirely on heavy-lift six-axis UAVs to deliver small consignments of food, water, and ammunition. (photo source RFAF, Military Review, Ukrinform).

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