Positive signals on supply, export coffee prices recover

Inventory pressure increases, coffee export prices continue to fall. Coffee export prices reach nearly 3,100 USD/ton, up 43%

Positive signals about the increasing supply of Arabica have caused the price to increase slightly compared to Robusta.

Certified Arabica inventories on the ICE-US exchange rose 36,390 bags last week, bringing the total certified coffee to nearly 360,550 bags, a four-month high. Meanwhile, coffee exports continued to outperform the same period in 2023. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE) said that the volume of Arabica coffee beans shipped in February increased 44% compared to the same period last year, with 2.97 million bags.

TÍn hiệu tích cực về nguồn cung, giá cà phê xuất khẩu phục hồi sau hai tuần giảm

Arabica coffee prices regained 1.66% and Robusta coffee prices increased 3.73% compared to the reference.

Concerns about supply risks remain as inventories are hovering at historic lows. In the closing report for February 29, Robusta inventories fell by 240 tonnes to 24,190 tonnes.

Assessing the global coffee supply and demand situation, international experts believe that the world will not lack or face difficulties with Arabica supply, but will have difficulties with Robusta.

Meanwhile, Vietnam has been the world’s number 1 producer and supplier of Robusta for many years. The whole world is used to buying Robusta coffee from Vietnam. Roasters around the world have changed their roasting formulas to include a large proportion of Vietnamese Robusta.

Robusta prices have risen to a 30-year high due to concerns about tight supply in Vietnam, according to a report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO).

The global Robusta supply is still congested and there is still price resistance in the domestic markets of many major producing countries. In addition, the EU's regulation that coffee must comply with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is also a factor affecting prices, as many countries have not yet prepared the procedures to meet this requirement. Therefore, Vietnamese coffee continues to benefit from prices.

According to Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, the world coffee industry has passed the period of cheap coffee. The current price increase is fair and can keep farmers staying with coffee trees. He believes that after this price fever, coffee prices can increase or decrease but cannot reach rock bottom like in recent years.

Coffee prices have been increasing continuously since before, so up to this point, about 70% of coffee farmers have sold out, the remaining 30% have not sold because their financial capacity is enough to cover the costs.

According to estimates from the General Statistics Office, coffee exports in February 2024 reached only 160 thousand tons, down nearly 20% compared to the same period last year. The reason is that February had a long Lunar New Year holiday, so commercial activities slowed down. This has supported the strong recovery of London futures prices in the past two days.

Average coffee export price in the first month of 2024 reached 3,050 USD/ton

In Vietnam, coffee has the third highest export turnover in agriculture , after wood and seafood products. Europe is the market that imports the most Vietnamese coffee, with 29% of total export turnover, followed by the US, China, Russia, Indonesia...

The 2022-2023 crop year has now ended and supplies are almost depleted. As a result, prices will increase as purchasing power increases. It is forecasted that coffee exports this year could reach $4.5-5 billion.

One of the bright spots of the coffee market in early 2024 is the price breakthrough. The average export price of coffee in the first month of 2024 reached 3,050 USD/ton, up 5.6% over the previous month and up 39.6% over the same period last year.

Coffee prices remain high due to high global demand and limited supply. This is a great opportunity for Vietnamese coffee. For sustainable exports, the coffee industry needs to continue restructuring, promote deep processing, and create a strong brand for Vietnamese coffee in the world market.

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