ADB's latest forecast on Vietnam's economic growth

TPO - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just raised its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth to 6.7% this year. However, growth is expected to slow down in the rest of the year due to the impact of the reciprocal tax that took effect on August 7.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today (September 30) announced an adjustment to Vietnam's economic growth forecast, raising it from the previous forecast of 6.6%. According to ADB, the wave of increased exports before the US applied new tariffs and the Government's support policies boosted economic growth in the first half of 2025. However, growth is forecast to slow down in the rest of the year due to the impact of reciprocal tariffs that took effect from August 7.

"While the domestic economy remains stable, growth is expected to moderate compared to the strong surge in the first half of 2025," ADB experts pointed out.

ADB announced an adjustment to Vietnam's economic growth forecast.

Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty - ADB Country Director in Vietnam - commented that better coordination between effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policies will help avoid putting excessive pressure on monetary instruments and ensure macroeconomic and financial stability.

In the longer term, comprehensive regulatory reforms need to address structural challenges, such as ensuring climate resilience, promoting private sector competitiveness, improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, modernizing the tax system, and digital transformation. These are key elements for a more balanced growth model.

ADB said that the reciprocal tariffs the US applies to Vietnam, including 20% ​​on imported goods and 40% on transit goods, pose risks of a short-term economic slowdown.

In the remaining quarter of the year, these tariffs are expected to impact trade and investment, highlighting the urgency of structural reforms to promote a more balanced growth model, supported by stronger domestic demand and more diversified export markets, to mitigate tariff-related shocks,” said the ADB expert.

Inflation is forecast at 3.9% in 2025 and easing slightly to 3.8% in 2026. Falling global energy prices have contributed to lower transportation costs, which account for a significant proportion of the consumer goods basket.

Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty also noted that Vietnam needs to focus on "climate-proofing" its infrastructure. Despite progress, Vietnam remains among the six countries most vulnerable to climate change, especially in the Mekong Delta. Strong investment in renewable energy, battery storage and electricity transmission is urgently needed.

Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung - Chief Economist of ADB in Vietnam - said that Vietnam's economy generally still maintains high resilience. However, the upcoming growth prospects will be strongly affected by global instability and the US's imposition of high tariffs.

Mr. Hung emphasized that implementing effective fiscal policy, especially promoting public investment, will play a key role in maintaining growth and increasing resilience. In addition, closer coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is necessary to avoid the disadvantages of monetary instruments, thereby maintaining macroeconomic stability.

ADB's forecast for Vietnam's economic growth is somewhat similar to that of some international organizations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Vietnam's GDP growth will reach 6.5% in 2025. The World Bank (WB) forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow by 6.6% in 2025, thanks to a breakthrough growth rate of 7.5% in the first half of the year.

Meanwhile, UOB Bank (Singapore) raised its full-year GDP growth forecast to 7.5%, following impressive growth in the first half of 2025 and expectations from increased public investment.

Source: https://tienphong.vn/adb-du-bao-moi-nhat-ve-tang-truong-kinh-te-viet-nam-post1782605.tpo