Breakthrough thanks to integrated ecosystem and rising domestic purchasing power

(Dan Tri) - Domestic purchasing power is increasingly improving, creating a foundation for leading enterprises such as Masan (MSN) to accelerate their expansion strategies and increase business efficiency in the remaining months of the year.

Consumer market flourishes, domestic demand maintains growth momentum

Vietnam’s economic picture in the third quarter opened with optimistic signals from domestic demand. After the stagnation of previous years, consumption has clearly rebounded, becoming a key growth driver.

According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue in August are estimated at VND588,200 billion, up 10.6% over the same period last year. In the first 8 months of the year, this figure reached nearly VND4.6 million billion, up 9.4%, higher than the 8.9% increase in the same period in 2024.

In the spending structure, essential consumer goods such as food, foodstuffs and beverages still account for a large proportion and play a leading role. In addition, the recovery of the tourism industry also contributes to promoting consumption.

With favorable visa policies, tourism promotion programs and many activities to celebrate major holidays, Vietnam has attracted international visitors. In August, Vietnam welcomed 1.68 million international visitors, up 16.5% over the same period; the cumulative number in the first 8 months reached 13.9 million, up 21.7% over last year.

The increase in visitors has led to spending on food and beverage services and consumer goods, creating more momentum for the retail industry during the year-end season.

These figures show that consumption has become a "bright spot" of the economy in a context where other driving forces such as exports and foreign investment still face many potential challenges.

Modern retail channels such as Wincommerce's supermarket system serve a variety of urban and rural customers (Photo: Masan ).

Spending demand is spreading from urban areas to local areas, as modern commercial infrastructure is increasingly expanded. Modern retail channels are expanding to rural areas and satellite cities.

Consumers increasingly prioritize safety, convenience and quality control, making the modern retail model the obvious choice. This also opens up a large space for domestic businesses, which understand the demand and have the ability to deploy quickly on a large scale.

Advantages for domestic enterprises to break through

In the Vietnamese retail consumption picture, domestic enterprises have a clear advantage thanks to their understanding of the market and flexible implementation capabilities. Masan Group (code MSN) is one of the typical representatives of this trend.

With an integrated consumer-retail ecosystem, Masan plays both a production role and owns a widespread distribution channel, creating a closed "growth circle" from production to consumption.

According to BVSC's September update report, Masan is assessed to have positive prospects with forecasted revenue in 2025 reaching VND 85,042 billion (up 2.2% over the same period) and profit after tax reaching VND 3,501 billion (up 75.1% over the same period).

Thanks to its control of the entire "growth circle", from production, logistics, and distribution, Masan has long-term growth potential, especially in the context of a thriving domestic retail market (Photo: Masan).

BVSC assesses the expectation of superior profit to the industry average for MSN stock with a target price of VND 106,000/share (29% higher than the closing price of VND 81,800 on September 29), emphasizing the main growth drivers coming from WinCommerce (WinMart/WinMart/WiN retail chain), Masan MEATLife (MML - meat processing segment), Masan High-Tech Materials (mineral segment, UpCom: MSR) and Phuc Long, while Masan Consumer (FMCG segment, UpCom: MCH) is expected to recover strongly from 2026.

From another perspective, VDSC highly appreciates MSN's long-term potential thanks to its integrated production - distribution - consumption model. The report points out that the recovery of domestic purchasing power, the process of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market and the possibility of MCH listing on HOSE will be important factors supporting MSN's valuation in the coming time.

This is a plus point that helps MSN become a strategic stock for investors interested in the story of 100 million people and booming consumption. VDSC analysts forecast that Masan's after-tax profit in the third quarter will reach about VND1,272 billion, up 81.4% compared to the same period last year.

Competition with domestic and foreign rivals, fluctuating raw material prices and operating costs, and the need to restructure distribution channels are challenges for Masan (Photo: Masan).

In addition to prospects, securities companies also pointed out some challenges that could affect MSN. First of all, competition in the retail sector is increasingly fierce as many domestic and foreign chains simultaneously expand their networks and invest in technology. This requires WCM to maintain growth while tightly controlling costs.

Second, volatile raw material prices and operating costs could put pressure on MML and MCH’s margins. In addition, the restructuring of distribution channels and e-invoicing requirements could impact short-term results.

Overall, MSN is considered to be in a favorable position to benefit from the recovery of Vietnamese consumption and the trend of retail modernization. The integrated ecosystem gives the group a long-term competitive advantage, while valuations from BVSC and VDSC as well as recent results show MSN's significant growth potential.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/but-pha-nho-he-sinh-thai-tich-hop-va-suc-mua-noi-dia-khoi-sac-20250929230124412.htm