Gasoline and oil prices forecast to increase and decrease in opposite directions during the operating period on September 11

In the operating period of September 11, 2025, retail gasoline prices may only decrease slightly by 0.2 - 0.5% compared to the previous operating period.

Buying and selling gasoline at a business location in Hanoi . Photo: VNA

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that, in the operating period of September 11, 2025, retail gasoline prices may only decrease slightly by 0.2 - 0.5% compared to the previous operating period, if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying artificial neural network (ANN) model and supervised learning algorithm in VPI's machine learning forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by 101 VND (0.5%) to 19,749 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may only decrease by 45 VND (0.2%) to 20,385 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices will fluctuate in this period. Specifically, fuel oil prices may decrease by 2.8% to VND14,940/kg, while diesel prices may increase slightly by 1.1% to VND18,673/liter and kerosene prices may increase slightly by 0.2% to VND18,347/liter. VPI predicts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

On the world market, oil prices fluctuated strongly after escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the end of the session on September 9 (US time), Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.6% to 66.39 USD/barrel, while US light sweet crude (WTI) prices also increased by 0.6% to 62.63 USD/barrel. Both types of oil increased by nearly 2% immediately after Israel attacked the Hamas leadership in the capital Doha of Qatar.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global crude oil prices will come under heavy pressure in the coming months due to rising inventories, limiting the upside momentum of oil prices. According to a report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude oil inventories rose last week, market sources said. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official data on September 10 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Meanwhile, traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. A rate cut would help reduce consumer borrowing costs and could boost economic growth and oil demand. In addition, the main factor supporting oil prices is the news that eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major producers outside the bloc (collectively known as OPEC+) agreed to increase production from October by 137,000 barrels per day. This figure is much lower than the previous monthly increase and also lower than forecasts of some analysts.

PV (synthesis)

Source: https://baohaiphong.vn/du-bao-gia-xang-dau-tang-giam-trai-chieu-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-11-9-520398.html