Keeping the pace of financial M&A: Between challenges and expectations

The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market in the financial sector in Vietnam is concerned about the narrowing growth space, but foreign capital is still pouring in.

For international investors, M&A is not only a way to hold current market share, but also a step to anticipate long-term development trends of the capital market.

Attractive "piece of cake" of the international financial world

A series of M&A deals in the financial sector in recent years have created two opposing viewpoints. On the one hand, many experts are concerned that the growth potential of consumer finance in Vietnam is gradually narrowing due to bad debt pressure and rapid population aging. On the other hand, the “billion-dollar” deals show that international corporations still see long-term potential and are willing to invest heavily in Vietnam.

In early 2024, the market witnessed a major deal when Home Credit transferred 100% of its capital contribution at Home Credit Vietnam Finance Company Limited to SCBX Group (Thailand) for a value of 866 million USD. This is the second largest M&A deal of a finance company in Vietnam, only after SMBC Bank (Japan) bought 49% of FE Credit's capital in 2021.

The wave of M&A in the financial sector in Vietnam is not a sign of retreat, but a process of repositioning and preparing for a new growth cycle. When the financial ecosystem - from banks, financial companies, investment funds to the bond market - is consolidated, opportunities will open up not only for foreign investors, but also for Vietnamese enterprises in accessing long-term, sustainable capital and competing on the global playing field.

At the same time, Bank of Ayudhya (Krungsri) - the 5th largest bank in Thailand also completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% of capital atSHB Finance, officially owning the entire finance company. The decisive steps from regional financial groups affirm their confidence in the Vietnamese market, despite short-term fluctuations.

Not only the consumer finance sector, the Vietnamese capital market is also becoming a destination for global "giants". In February 2024, S&P Global - a corporation with a capitalization of more than 167 billion USD on the NYSE officially became a strategic shareholder, holding 43.4% of shares at FiinRatings. The combination of S&P's international experience and FiinRatings' understanding of the domestic market opens up opportunities to connect global resources, contributing to elevating the Vietnamese capital market.

The presence of the Credit Guarantee and Investment Fund (CGIF - a trust fund of ADB) and Maybank Securities Company in bond transactions also created a new boost. In 2024, CGIF successfully guaranteed a 10-year bond of VND700 billion from Biwase - Long An , becoming the first bond in Vietnam to be rated AAA thanks to a full guarantee. This is considered an important step in building trust and expanding the corporate debt market.

  Policy and economic drivers

Mr. Michael Paul Piro, General Director of Indochina Capital, commented that Vietnam's GDP growth target of 8.3-8.5% in 2025 will create a strong driving force for the green economy, digital economy and digital transformation. In that picture, M&A activities emerge as an important channel to promote restructuring and expansion of enterprises. Rapid economic growth often entails the need for investment, diversification and market entry, making M&A a natural choice to achieve growth.

The State Securities Commission is promoting many solutions: information transparency, product diversification, encouraging green and sustainable issuance and applying credit ratings. According to Mr. Dominic Scriven, Chairman of Dragon Capital Group, the huge capital demand of the private sector by 2030 could reach 320 billion USD/year, far exceeding the supply capacity of the credit system. To clear the way, the debt capital market and corporate bonds must become the central mobilization channel.

However, the Vietnamese debt market is still limited in scale, product quality and lacks an effective credit guarantee mechanism. In addition, the national credit rating at BB+ makes it impossible for many international funds to allocate capital to Vietnamese bonds.

FiinGroup added that the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of Vietnamese banks is only about 12.5%, significantly lower than the region, limiting the ability to provide medium and long-term credit. Meanwhile, the scale of the fund management industry, which has only reached 28 billion USD (less than 6% of GDP), is too small compared to its potential. If raised to 15% of GDP by 2030, the scale could reach 120 billion USD - 4.3 times the current level.

Mr. Do Ngoc Quynh, Vice President of FiinRatings, shared that the size of Vietnam's corporate bond market is only at VND1.25 quadrillion (equivalent to 10.8% of GDP), far from the target of 25% of GDP by 2030. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to synchronously resolve bottlenecks: limited investor base, lack of quality products, incomplete credit rating and guarantee mechanisms, and weak information and monitoring infrastructure.

In that context, M&A activities in the financial sector - from consumer finance companies, credit rating agencies, to fund management companies - are still very attractive. Vietnam has advantages in terms of young population size, expanding middle class, and is entering a phase of upgrading both national credit and stock market.

According to the General Statistics Office, in the first 8 months of 2025, the total registered FDI capital reached 26.14 billion USD (up 27.3% over the same period in 2024). August alone recorded 18 M&A deals worth 2.23 billion USD. The industrial, technology, real estate and financial services sectors still lead. Notably, strategic deals dominate in terms of quantity, while 78% of the total value comes from corporate restructuring transactions.

For international investors, M&A is not only a way to hold current market share, but also a step to anticipate the long-term development trend of the capital market and the growing need to mobilize capital from the private sector.

For Vietnam, foreign capital not only brings financial resources, but also management expertise, international standards and transparency - key factors for the domestic financial market to mature.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/giu-nhip-ma-tai-chinh-giua-thach-thuc-va-ky-vong-d392443.html