Will iPhone 18 and 'star' iPhone Fold create a fever that surpasses iPhone 17?

From concern to optimism

In March 2025, Morgan Stanley lowered its Apple stock price forecast to $252 due to concerns that demand for upgrading to the iPhone 17 series would be low.

However, in a new investor note, cited by AppleInsider , analysts said actual demand is higher than initially expected – and there is still plenty of room for growth in the coming months.

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The iPhone Fold is expected to launch in 2026. Photo: AppleInsider

Specifically, supply chain surveys show that Apple has not increased iPhone production, but that will happen in the near future.

Multiple sources from suppliers indicate that in the remaining months of 2025, Apple will increase iPhone 17 orders from 84–86 million units to more than 90 million units.

According to Morgan Stanley, this increase in orders is mainly focused on the iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max – two high-end models that are expected to keep sales up. This will offset the fact that demand for the iPhone Air is lower than expected.

Although the entire iPhone 17 series only recorded moderate growth, analysts said this was a somewhat conservative assessment, as early-stage demand was still very high.

iPhone 18 will explode, iPhone Fold - the trump card

Notably, Morgan Stanley believes that the stability of the iPhone 17 series has increased expectations for the appeal of the iPhone 18. The reason is that most current users come from the group that owns older iPhones - considered "outdated".

iPhone 18 Pro Max concept video . (Source: Vision Of America)

It is predicted that by 2026, more people will fall into this group, which means the iPhone 18 upgrade cycle will explode strongly.

Not only that, Morgan Stanley predicts that Apple will launch up to 6 iPhone models in 2026, including: iPhone 17e (low-cost), standard iPhone 18, iPhone Air, iPhone Fold (folding), iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max.

Among these, the iPhone Fold – the first foldable screen iPhone model – is considered the new “star”, promising to create a big boost for global sales. Morgan Stanley currently forecasts that Apple will sell a total of 243 million iPhones in 2026.

However, in the most optimistic scenario, if the iPhone Fold really creates a fever and Apple Intelligence (new generation AI features) becomes a strong driving force, sales could reach 270 million units.

At that point, AAPL's stock target price could hit $376 – a significant upside from where it is now.

Advantages from strategy and partnership

Not only is Morgan Stanley forecasting device demand, it is also confident in Apple's ability to respond to external challenges.

The bank was recently one of the few to correctly predict Apple would continue to maintain its search agreement with Google – a key source of services revenue.

In addition, Morgan Stanley also believes that Apple is taking an aggressive approach to overcome tariff and geopolitical barriers, strengthen its supply chain, and maintain market share.

From being pessimistic about iPhone 17, Morgan Stanley has now become one of the most optimistic organizations about Apple.

With the prospect of iPhone 18 and the appearance of iPhone Fold, Apple is expected to enter a strong growth cycle in 2026.

However, analysts also warn that this success depends on two key factors: the real attractiveness of the foldable iPhone and Apple's ability to fully exploit Apple Intelligence to turn AI into a different value compared to competitors.

In a context where users are increasingly demanding higher technology, Apple will have to prove that the iPhone 18 is not just a simple upgrade, but the opening of a new era of iPhone.

(According to Macworld, AppleInsider)

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