War on the Korean peninsula is unlikely.

According to Reuters, US and South Korean officials said there were no signs that North Korea was about to take military action, even though Pyongyang was escalating its confrontation with the US.
and allies.

Overhyped

Earlier this month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un “made a strategic decision to go to war,” much like North Korean President Kim Il-sung did in 1950, with the United States distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, some experts said. However, officials in Washington and Seoul “did not sense” a war was imminent.

“While we do not see any indication of a direct military threat at this time, we continue to monitor the potential for North Korean military action against South Korea and Japan,” an unnamed US official said.

Ballistic missiles launched by North Korea on January 14 at an unknown location. Photo: REUTERS

Meanwhile, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik has dismissed as “exaggerated” claims by some American experts that the possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula is now the highest since the Korean War (1950-1953). Technically, the two Koreas are still at war. According to Minister Shin Won-sik, the experts’ comments only benefit North Korea’s psychological warfare. A spokesman for the Japanese Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the possibility that North Korea is planning military action, only stating that Tokyo is closely monitoring Pyongyang’s statements and actions.

Sydney Seiler, who worked at the US National Intelligence Council, said that North Korea is not prepared for war. In addition, Mr. Donald Trump, a potential Republican candidate in this year's White House race, when he was President, threatened to withdraw US troops from South Korea and had a rather moderate attitude towards Mr. Kim Jong-un.

Increasing pressure

Although the risk assessment has been exaggerated, some officials and analysts agree that North Korea is likely to continue, or even increase, its provocations after it made strides in ballistic missile development and abandoned its decades-long goal of unification with South Korea.

Minister Shin Won-sik said that North Korea may increase pressure at the time of the South Korean National Assembly election in April and the US presidential election in November. Before these two political events, Pyongyang may try to facilitate strategic goals by high-intensity provocations such as launching spy satellites, intercontinental missiles or nuclear tests.

The latest moves and statements by parties involved in the Korean peninsula followed a "controversial" report published on the 38 North page of the Stimson Center (USA) by former US intelligence analyst Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker.

According to the two experts, North Korea believes that the current global trend creates favorable conditions for a military solution to the Korean Peninsula issue. The two experts argue that North Korea has fundamentally changed its strategic thinking, abandoning the ultimate goal of improving relations with the US after the failed Kim-Trump Summit. Now, Pyongyang focuses on cooperation with China and Russia, and strengthens a tougher stance with South Korea.

PEARL

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