After 5 reductions, gasoline prices are forecast to increase slightly in the operating period tomorrow, August 15.

Domestic gasoline prices at tomorrow's adjustment session (August 15) are forecast to increase after 5 consecutive decreases.

Tomorrow (August 15) is the retail price management period. gasoline according to Decree 80/2023 amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 95 and Decree 83 of the Government on petroleum business.

Domestic gasoline prices at the adjustment session tomorrow (August 15) are forecast to increase after 5 consecutive decreases. Photo: VNA

In the world market, world oil prices last week recorded the first week of increase after 4 consecutive weeks of decrease. Overall, last week, Brent oil prices increased by more than 3.5%, while WTI oil prices increased by more than 4%.

This week, after a sharp increase in the first trading session of the week, world oil prices reversed and decreased in the trading session on August 13.

At the beginning of the trading session on August 14, world oil prices increased slightly. According to data from Oilprice, at 7:49 a.m. on August 14 (Vietnam time), Brent oil price was traded at 81.12 USD/barrel, up 0.53% compared to the previous session. WTI oil price was at 78.86 USD/barrel, up 0.65% compared to the previous session.

In the Singapore market, in the recent period, the average price of finished gasoline in this market increased slightly compared to the previous period.

If the conflict in the Middle East spreads, the US could impose sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports, which could impact global crude oil supplies and support oil prices, said Bob Yawger, director of energy at Mizuho Bank in New York.

Sharing this view, Mr. Pierre Veyret - technical analyst at ActivTrades commented that in the short term, oil prices will benefit from the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about a potential conflict that could disrupt the output of the world's key oil-producing region and reduce global oil supply.

Last week, three Federal Reserve officials said inflation was showing signs of cooling enough for the Fed to consider cutting interest rates as early as next month. Rate cuts tend to spur economic activity, which increases the use of energy sources like oil.

In addition, world oil prices were also supported when consumer prices in China, the world's largest oil importer, increased faster than expected in July 2024.

Based on the world oil price developments, leaders of some oil trading enterprises commented that domestic gasoline prices will be adjusted up in the next regulation period (August 15). If the regulator does not influence the Oil Price Stabilization Fund, domestic gasoline prices may increase by 320-420 VND/liter. Diesel prices are expected to increase by 250-320 VND/liter.

If the above forecast is correct, domestic gasoline products will record the first increase after 5 consecutive decreases.

In another development, the Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that, in the operating session tomorrow, August 15, retail gasoline prices are forecast to decrease slightly by only 0.2-0.3%, bringing the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline to VND20,666/liter and RON 95-III gasoline to VND21,600/liter; fuel oil prices will increase slightly by 0.7% to VND16,134/kg, while diesel and kerosene are forecast to decrease slightly by 0.1% to VND19,121/liter and VND19,387/liter, respectively.

VPI inter-ministerial forecast Finance- Industry and Trade This period will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

In the most recent petrol price adjustment period (August 8), the prices of petrol and oil have decreased sharply.

Specifically, the price of E5 gasoline decreased by 900 VND/liter, the selling price is 20,710 VND/liter. The price of RON 95 gasoline decreased by 930 VND/liter, the selling price is 21,670 VND/liter.

Similarly, diesel price was also adjusted down by 730 VND/liter, selling price at 19,140 VND/liter. Kerosene price was reduced by 680 VND/liter, selling price at 19,410 VND/liter.

In this operating period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance did not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund for E5RON92 gasoline, RON95 gasoline, diesel oil, kerosene, and mazut oil.

Since the beginning of 2024, domestic gasoline prices have undergone 31 adjustment sessions, including 15 decrease sessions, 14 increase sessions and 3 opposite sessions.

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