Ukraine 'accepts fate', will Russia win?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has just sent a message that he is ready to abandon the conditions that Kyiv once considered "non-negotiable" to move towards negotiations with Russia.

In an interview with Sky News on November 29, President Zelensky said that if Kyiv could join NATO, so that the lands it still controls could be protected by the alliance, it could reach an agreement on a ceasefire.

Compromise with reality

The above opinion means that Kyiv has not set any preconditions for Moscow to return the territories it controls from Ukraine, in exchange for joining NATO and ending the war. Throughout the past time, Kyiv has repeatedly affirmed that it will not negotiate if Moscow does not return the occupied lands from Ukraine.

This development is not surprising. As Thanh Nien analyzed, when both Russia and Ukraine intensified their attacks on each other since mid-November, it was likened to the efforts of the two teams in the final minutes of the match. "The match whistle will soon sound after January 20, 2025 (when Mr. Trump takes office)," according to analysis from experts from Eurasia Group (USA) - the world's leading political risk research and consulting unit.

Ukrainian soldiers during a military exercise on November 22.

Washington will use the aid card to pressure Kyiv to sit at the negotiating table even without receiving conditions for Moscow to return the occupied areas. Conversely, Moscow will also be pressured to sit at the negotiating table under military pressure when Washington increases weapons support for Kyiv.

Without US aid, Ukraine will have a hard time maintaining its combat capabilities. So, if Kyiv “accepts its fate,” it can exchange future reconstruction aid for the opportunity to join NATO.

Zelensky's new calculation for NATO to protect Ukraine

The situation is gradually becoming clear.

Meanwhile, the war is causing Russia to face many difficulties. First of all, sanctions from the West have severely damaged the Russian economy . Not only that, the recent drop in oil prices has seriously damaged Moscow's revenue.

To deal with rising inflation, in October, the Russian Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 2 percentage points, to 21%. This is the country's historic high interest rate to deal with inflation. Not stopping there, the Governor of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, also "threatened" to continue to increase the key interest rate.

However, the above-mentioned monetary tightening policy has caused increasing criticism from leading Russian industrialists. Typically, "metal business tycoon" Oleg Deripaska, billionaire Alexey Mordashov (Chairman of Severstal Group, leading the Russian steel and mining market), or businessman Sergey Chemezov (head of the influential defense corporation Rostec in Russia) have all spoken out in response, according to Politico . At a conference in St. Petersburg (Russia) on November 27, billionaire Mordashov criticized the policy of the Russian Central Bank as "medicine that is more harmful than the disease".

In such a context, if it is possible to end the war and still have "achievements" for domestic purposes, it is also the best choice. The "achievement" here is that Russia has occupied some land in Ukraine. In fact, Moscow has recently repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate.

However, even if the above lands are captured, the end of the military campaign does not mean that Moscow has achieved its goals. In his speech in February 2022 when announcing the military campaign against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the country cannot feel safe, develop and survive while facing a permanent threat from Ukraine. The threat he mentioned was the risk of NATO absorbing Ukraine when expanding eastward. Therefore, Mr. Putin declared that Moscow "seeks to demilitarize" Kyiv. However, so far, it is clear that Moscow has not achieved that. Not only that, after Moscow's military advance, Sweden and Finland joined NATO. In the near future, if Ukraine is added, NATO will move closer to the Russian border. In the west of Russia, the only "buffer zone" between this country and NATO is Belarus.

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers fled?

Defense News on November 29 quoted Ukrainian soldiers, lawyers and officials as saying that thousands of soldiers had deserted and fled their frontline positions. Some commanders and soldiers said that in some places, entire units had abandoned their positions, leaving the frontline at risk of being controlled by the enemy while their comrades were in danger.

Some asked for medical leave and then did not return. Some clashed with their commanders and disobeyed orders, sometimes in the middle of combat. Some said they felt exhausted by the intensity of the fighting, which affected them psychologically and emotionally.

Vi Tran

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/ukraine-chap-nhan-so-phan-nga-co-chien-thang-185241130224829077.htm