VPI forecasts retail gasoline prices to increase slightly in the operating period on October 2

VPI forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by VND157 (0.8%) to VND19,767/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase by VND133 (0.7%) to VND20,293/liter.

Buying and selling gasoline at the Petrolimex gas station on Tran Hung Dao Street, Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi. Photo: VNA

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that, in the October 2 management period, retail gasoline prices may continue to increase by 0.7-2.8% compared to the previous management period, if the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying artificial neural network (ANN) model and supervised learning algorithm in VPI's machine learning forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by 157 VND (0.8%) to 19,767 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase by 133 VND (0.7%) to 20,293 VND/liter.

VPI's model forecasts that retail oil prices will continue to decrease this period. Specifically, kerosene prices may increase by 2.8% to VND19,141/liter, diesel may increase by 2.6% to VND19,135/liter, and fuel oil may increase by 2.5% to VND15,580/kg.

VPI forecasts that this period, the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

In the world market, at the end of the session on September 30 (US time), Brent oil price decreased by 1.4% to 67.02 USD/barrel; US WTI oil price decreased by 1.7% to 62.37 USD/barrel.

World oil prices continued to fall as investors braced for a possible supply glut due to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+), which may increase production more sharply next month and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region via Türkiye.

Sources said that eight members of OPEC+ may agree to increase production in November 2025 by 274,000-411,000 barrels/day, which is 2 or 3 times higher than the increase in October 2025.

OPEC+ accounts for about half of the world's oil production. The increase could be as high as 500,000 barrels per day, according to sources.

Earlier on September 30, Bloomberg News reported that OPEC+ was considering increasing production by 500,000 barrels per day. Michael McCarthy, CEO of investment platform Moomoo in Australia and New Zealand, said lingering concerns about rising oil production were holding back the commodity's upward momentum.

ANZ analysts said the risk of a US government shutdown was raising demand concerns. Meanwhile, data from the US Energy Information Administration released on September 30 showed that the country's crude oil production increased by 109,000 barrels per day from the previous record in June 2025, reaching a new monthly high of 13.64 million barrels per day in July 2025.

PV (synthesis)

Source: https://baohaiphong.vn/vpi-du-bao-gia-ban-le-xang-tang-nhe-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-2-10-522258.html