ANTD.VN - The State Bank's survey results show that credit institutions forecast that the deposit and lending interest rates may continue to decrease slightly in 2024.
Interest rates fall, loan demand improves
According to the results of the survey on business trends of credit institutions in the first quarter of 2024, which was just announced by the State Bank, credit institutions assessed that in the fourth quarter of 2023, customers' demand for banking services improved, but not as expected. In which, the demand for payment and card services was assessed to have improved more strongly than the demand for loans and deposits due to the seasonality at the end of the year.
Overall assessment in 2023, the rate of credit institutions assessing that customers' demand for banking services "improved" was lower than in 2022, in which demand for deposits was assessed to increase higher than demand for payments and loans.
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Banks predict interest rates will continue to fall. |
In the first quarter of 2024, the rate of credit institutions forecasting an improvement in customers' demand for banking services was lower than in the fourth quarter of 2023, but is forecast to improve more strongly in 2024. Notably, the demand for loans is forecast to improve more than the demand for deposits and payments, different from the situation in 2023.
According to credit institutions, the liquidity of the banking system in the fourth quarter of 2023 continued to maintain a good state and improved more positively than expected. Credit institutions assessed that the liquidity situation in 2023 was more abundant than in 2022, and forecast that it would continue to be abundant in the first quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024.
The deposit and lending interest rates are forecast to continue to decrease slightly, with an average expected decrease of 0.3-0.4 percentage points in the first quarter of 2024 and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points in the whole year of 2024.
Risk level continues to increase
The overall risk level of customer groups is assessed by credit institutions to continue to increase in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, but the growth rate is slowing down.
Overall assessment of 2023, the customer risk level is assessed to have increased significantly compared to 2022 and increased much more strongly than the initial forecast, however, expectations may decrease in 2024.
Capital mobilization of the entire credit institution system is expected to increase by an average of 2.6% in the first quarter of 2024 and by 12.1% in 2024, equivalent to the expectation in the previous survey.
Outstanding credit of the banking system is forecast to increase by 4.4% in the first quarter of 2024 and by 14.2% in 2024, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the forecast of 13.8% in the previous survey.
Contrary to expectations of a decrease, this survey results show that credit institutions believe that the ratio of bad debt/credit balance in the fourth quarter of 2023 will continue to "increase slightly", but is expected to "decrease slightly" in the first quarter of 2024.
According to the survey results, the business situation and pre-tax profit of the banking system in the fourth quarter of 2023 improved slightly compared to the previous quarter but was much lower than the expected level recorded in the previous survey.
In the overall assessment of 2023, credit institutions assessed that the business situation had not met expectations and sharply reduced their expectations for pre-tax profit growth rate compared to the forecast level in the previous survey.
Of which, 78.6% of credit institutions estimate pre-tax profit in 2023 to grow positively compared to 2022; 17.9% of credit institutions estimate negative profit growth and 3.6% estimate unchanged.
With the business situation and pre-tax profit in 2023 growing at a low rate and not reaching expectations, credit institutions expect the business situation to be more positive from the first quarter of 2024 and the whole year of 2024, but pre-tax profit may recover slower than the business situation.
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