Increased Foreign Capital Flows, Long-Term Opportunities for Vietnam's Consumer - Retail Industry

An Integrated Consumer Ecosystem to Satisfy The Evolving Big Unmet Needs of 100 Million Vietnamese Consumers.

Vietnam is approaching the milestone of upgrading its market, opening up opportunities for global capital to penetrate deeper. In particular, Masan Group (HOSE: MSN) shares have a capitalization of nearly 4.8 billion USD, with high liquidity, large foreign room and a solid business foundation, and are expected to be "chosen" by foreign capital.

Market upgrade and potential foreign capital wave

According to the stock market development strategy until 2030 issued by the Government , Vietnam is accelerating reforms to soon be upgraded from a frontier market to an emerging market. This is not only a factor to improve the country's position, but also opens up the possibility of attracting billions of dollars in capital flows from ETFs, passive funds and international active capital.

In September 2025, the Vietnamese stock market will enter a period of special interest from global investors when FTSE Russell prepares to announce its periodic review. After many years on the watch list, the possibility of upgrading from frontier to emerging is closer than ever. Along with that, according to the latest strategy report of SSI Research, Vietnam is likely to be announced as an upgrade by FTSE Russell in October 2025. This event could help attract about 1 billion USD in ETF capital flows from index-simulating funds. Experience from many other markets shows that stocks often perform positively even before the upgrade, thanks to expectations of increased foreign capital flows and improved investor sentiment.

With a market capitalization of about VND90,000 billion (~USD3.4 billion), an average 30-day liquidity of USD15.1 million and foreign room remaining at nearly 24%, MSN (Masan Group) shares have emerged as a strong candidate to be included in the global index basket in the upgrade scenario. However, not only thanks to technical criteria, MSN's attractiveness also comes from its solid core business foundation.

Solid consumer-retail ecosystem

The difference that helps MSN maintain its long-term appeal to investors is its business model closely linked to essential consumer needs, the most sustainable growth sector in Vietnam. With a population of nearly 100 million, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in 2024 is estimated at VND6,391 trillion, up 9% over the previous year, creating a large space for businesses to lead the market.

Currently, MSN owns a closed integrated consumer-retail ecosystem from production to distribution, including Masan Consumer (MCH), WinCommerce (WCM), Masan MEATLife (MML) and Phuc Long Heritage (PLH). In which, WCM holds the leading position in the modern retail market share with nearly 4,200 stores, creating a superior advantage in product distribution for MCH and MML.

According to information from the company, the business results in the second quarter of 2025 do not just stop at growth numbers, but also reflect how Masan is maximizing the power of an integrated ecosystem, from consumption, retail, food to high-tech materials. In the quarter, the Group recorded net revenue of VND 18,315 billion and Pre-MI profit after tax of VND 1,619 billion, bringing the accumulated 6 months to VND 2,602 billion, nearly double compared to the same period and exceeding 50% of the yearly plan. This is proof of the resonance between core business segments.

WinCommerce continues to affirm its role as the "locomotive" of modern retail with four consecutive profitable quarters. Second-quarter revenue increased by 16.4%, driven by the strategy of expanding the WinMart+ model in rural areas, bringing the system closer to rural consumption needs, a rapidly growing market. In addition, Masan MEATLife accelerated with VND 2,340 billion in revenue, up 30.7% thanks to focusing on processed meat, in line with the trend of consumers shifting to high-value products. In parallel, Masan High-Tech Materials took advantage of the recovery in strategic mineral prices to improve profit margins, contributing to the overall growth picture.

Attractive valuation in upgrade scenario

These positive business results not only strengthen MSN's position as a leading consumer-retail enterprise, but also create a solid foundation for MSN shares to become more attractive in the eyes of domestic and international investors.

On the stock exchange, MSN stock code also maintains its position in the largest capitalization group of HOSE and has stable liquidity in the top VN30, ensuring the ability to absorb capital flows of billions of USD. Notably, the restructuring of shareholders in recent years has significantly improved the free float ratio, making the stock more suitable for the selection criteria of global index baskets. According to SSI Research, this is also the reason why MSN is considered one of the retail businesses that can directly benefit from capital flows when the market is upgraded.

Valuations from securities companies also reinforced analysts' confidence. KBSV estimated MSN's fair value at around VND100,000/share according to the SoTP model; VCBS recommended BUY, setting a target of VND93,208/share, about 14% higher than the market price; while VCI set a target of VND101,000/share, emphasizing the advantage of the network expansion strategy and product portfolio optimization.

As Vietnam moves closer to its goal of upgrading its market, international institutional investors will prioritize stocks that meet both technical criteria and internal growth potential. MSN, with its essential consumer base, improved financial performance and large foreign room, is emerging as a potential “gateway” for foreign capital to penetrate deeper into the Vietnamese market.

Source: https://www.masangroup.com/vi/news/masan-news/Rising-Foreign-Capital-Inflows-Long-Term-Opportunities-for-Vietnam-Consumer-and-Retail-Sector.html