How will El Nino affect this winter?

Coldshort

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said: El Nino phenomenon is likely to last until the end of spring 2024 with a probability of over 90%. After that, El Nino tends to gradually shift to a neutral state in the summer months with a probability of about 60 - 70%.

The latest cold air mass is intensifying in the North of our country.

In the second half of 2024, sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4 region) tend to decrease gradually and the ENSO state is likely to transition to La Nina phase in the last months of 2024.

Due to the influence of El Nino, cold air waves are weaker than the average of many years, so the possibility of severe cold (from January to March 2024) is lower than the average of many years in the same period.

Quick view at 12 noon on January 19: Cold air continues to strengthen, the North will be cold for at least 7 days

However, there is still a possibility of extreme and dangerous weather phenomena. Specifically, there may be a strong cold spell causing widespread cold, frost, and snow in the mountainous areas of the North. Light rain and drizzle in the North in the first 3 months of 2024 are likely to occur more often than the average of many years.

The Northern and Central regions are likely to experience dangerous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind, especially during the northeast monsoon season that sweeps down to our country.

For the Central Highlands and Southern regions, beware of thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind during the transitional months (April - May 2024).

Early heat, high temperature

While the cold is less, the heat wave phenomenon increases. In the Southern region, the Northwest region, the North and the Central region, the heat wave phenomenon is likely to come earlier and appear more often than the average of many years.

This is accompanied by an increased risk of drought in the Central Highlands and the South from February to April 2024 due to the low likelihood of unseasonal rains. In particular, the Central Highlands and the South need to be on guard against the risk of drought during this period.

From June 2024, the southwest monsoon tends to be stronger than average, the South and Central Highlands enter the rainy season.

It should be noted that the northeast monsoon (from January to April 2024) and the southwest monsoon from June 2024 are likely to cause strong winds and large waves that affect activities in coastal areas. In addition, thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail, severe cold, frost, snow and heat waves negatively affect agricultural production and public health in affected areas.

Due to the impact of the El Nino phenomenon, from January to June 2024, the average temperature nationwide will be about 1 - 1.5 ^degrees Celsius higher than the average of many years.

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