Vietnam's GDP is forecast to grow by about 6% in the second quarter of 2025.

The Global Economics and Market Research Department of UOB Bank (Singapore) forecasts Vietnam's economic growth at 6% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026. In the second and third quarters of 2025 alone, GDP growth is expected to reach 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively.

UOB maintains 2025 GDP growth forecast at 6%, VND will recover from Q4/2025.

Previously, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecast that Vietnam's GDP growth would slow down due to a decline in foreign investment and exports under the impact of global policy instability. OECD said that Vietnam's GDP is estimated to reach 6.2% this year and 6% next year. "Although the GDP growth rate is expected to slow down, Vietnam's economy is still assessed to have a positive outlook in the period 2025 - 2026 and is significantly higher than other countries in the region," the OECD report stated.

According to UOB Bank, in the context of uncertainty surrounding tariff policy, UOB still maintains a cautious view on Vietnam's prospects, as the economy is heavily dependent on trade (exports account for about 90% of GDP), of which the US market alone accounts for about 30% of total export turnover. In addition, exports are also highly concentrated in key industries such as electricity, electronics, furniture, textiles and footwear (accounting for about 80% of total export turnover to the US).

A backdrop of benign inflation amid global trade tensions and rising tariff uncertainty is opening up the possibility of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) easing monetary policy. However, unlike some of its regional neighbors, the current weakness in the Vietnamese dong (VND) is a factor that the SBV must consider, according to UOB. UOB forecasts the SBV will keep its policy rate unchanged, with the refinancing rate remaining at 4.5%.

Since the beginning of the quarter, the VND has depreciated by 1.8%, reaching a new record low of about 26,000 VND/USD. UOB representatives believe that the VND will continue to fluctuate in a weak price range within the trading range with the USD until the end of the third quarter of 2025. However, from the fourth quarter of 2025 onwards, the VND may begin to regain its recovery momentum, in line with the general improving trend of Asian currencies as trade uncertainties gradually ease.

“The USD/VND exchange rate is forecast to be 26,300 in Q3/2025, 26,100 in Q4/2025, 25,900 in Q1/2026, and 25,700 in Q2/2026,” UOB Bank Report stated.

Despite the positive signs, the OECD forecasts that Vietnam’s economy will still face many challenges. Global policy instability is expected to dampen foreign investment and export activities. FDI inflows are expected to weaken further. Inflation is also forecast to increase.

The OECD said Vietnam remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in international markets. Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative to support growth, but will have to be cautious about rising inflationary pressures from increases in pensions, minimum wages, and prices of state-managed goods. Fiscal policy is expected to support growth in 2025 through the disbursement of outstanding public investment projects, but will gradually become more balanced thereafter.

According to the General Statistics Office ( Ministry of Finance ), the world situation is complicated, unpredictable, and difficult to predict, especially the US policy and the response of other countries. The increase in geopolitical instability and trade policy has put pressure on investment and household spending. Tariff tensions between the US and other countries, and the existing risk of trade war have negatively impacted global economic growth.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/du-bao-gdp-cua-viet-nam-trong-quy-ii2025-khoang-6-20250609175544504.htm