Pressure on gold prices

On the morning of July 28, the world gold market opened with a downward trend. The spot gold price in Asia fell nearly 10 USD/oz at one point, down to 3,326 USD/oz, after falling significantly from above 3,400 USD/oz at the beginning of last week to 3,336 USD/oz at the end of the week.

In Vietnam, the price of SJC gold is not out of this trend, decreasing by 600,000 VND/tael to 121.1 million VND/tael as of 10:00 a.m. on July 28, according to the listed price at major gold businesses.

The main reason for the pressure on gold is the increased risk appetite, stimulated by the trade agreements that the US reached with Japan, the Philippines and especially the European Union (EU) before the August 1 deadline.

According to Bloomberg , the US-EU framework agreement to impose a common 15% tariff on bilateral goods, instead of the 25-30% rate that President Donald Trump had threatened, has eased months-long trade tensions.

This positive news, along with the prospect of extending the US-China trade truce at the round of negotiations in Stockholm on July 28, has boosted money flows into risky investment channels such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The US stock market recorded impressive gains last week. In the final session of the week on July 25, the broad-based S&P 500 index increased for the fifth consecutive session and also set new records. Meanwhile, the technology index Nasdaq Composite also continuously set new peaks during the week; the Dow Jones industrial average also increased points and was close to a record.

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World gold prices fall under new pressure. Photo: HH

According to FactSet, 82% of 169 companies in the S&P 500 announced second-quarter business results that exceeded expectations, creating momentum for the market. US Bank Wealth Management experts said that the upward trend of US stocks will continue thanks to stable inflation, no strong fluctuations in interest rates and growing corporate profits.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is also bustling. Bitcoin remains at an all-time high, while Ethereum has recorded a strong increase, attracting capital flows from investors. Gold, which is considered a safe haven asset, has become less attractive as “risk-on” sentiment prevails.

In addition, the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at 4.25-4.5% in its meeting on July 29-30 (with betting odds of up to 97.4%) further puts pressure on gold.

A strong US dollar in the short term, with the Dollar Index hovering around 97.6 points, also contributed to curbing gold's gains.

Potential for a deep drop if it 'breaks' the $3,300/oz mark

Despite downward pressure, world gold prices showed signs of a slight recovery late in the morning of July 28, increasing by 4 USD to 3,342 USD/oz.

However, analysts have warned that gold may be entering a correction phase. The fact that gold prices have been unable to maintain the $3,400/oz mark recently shows that technical risks are increasing. The fact that gold prices have broken through the important support level of $3,350 makes the risk even higher.

However, several factors could support gold prices in the medium to long term. Gold demand in Asia, especially from retail investors and central banks, remains high. Whenever gold prices correct sharply, demand usually increases, a familiar phenomenon in the market.

In addition, central banks around the world, especially in developing countries, continue to buy gold to diversify their reserves and reduce their dependence on the USD. This trend is reinforced in the context of US President Donald Trump putting pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates.

Regarding monetary policy, the market is waiting for the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after the meeting on July 30. Although the interest rate is kept unchanged this month, investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates at least twice in 2025, possibly starting from the September meeting. This is considered a long-term supporting factor for gold, because low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold - a non-interest-bearing asset.

Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank said that investment demand for gold may have peaked in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive thanks to geopolitical factors and monetary policy.

This week’s key economic events will also influence gold prices. ADP employment data (Wednesday), PCE price index (Thursday) and non-farm payrolls report (Friday) will provide further clues on the health of the US economy, which will impact interest rate expectations and the USD.

Additionally, policy meetings by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan could cause volatility in the US dollar, indirectly affecting gold.

In the short term, the world gold price may continue to be under downward pressure, with the nearest support zone being 3,300 USD/oz (equivalent to 105.7 million VND/tael). If the US economic data continues to be positive and the Fed maintains a neutral stance after its meeting at the end of July, the gold price may fall further.

In Vietnam, the price of SJC gold - which is controlled by world prices and USD exchange rate, may decrease by another 1-2 million VND/tael, to around 119-120 million VND/tael.

However, in the medium and long term, gold remains a safe investment channel, supported by increased demand from Asia, central bank gold reserve buying trends and expectations of lower interest rates from 2026.

Gold price today July 28, 2025: Continuously decreasing, SJC gold adjusts strongly? Gold price today July 28, 2025 is forecasted to continue to decrease sharply due to lack of important driving force. Will SJC gold price adjust strongly and leave the 121 million VND/tael mark?
Gold prices fell sharply after the 'biggest trade day', money flowed into one channel . World gold prices fell sharply, while US stocks hit a new peak after President Donald Trump announced the completion of three major trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia, and revealed positive progress with the EU.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-chiu-ap-luc-don-dap-vang-mieng-sjc-co-lui-ve-119-trieu-dong-luong-2426443.html