Israel knew about Hamas' attack plan a year ago

According to the New York Times , documents, emails and interviews show that Israeli officials knew about Hamas's plan for the October 7 attack more than a year before it happened.

The 40-page document, codenamed "Jericho Wall" by the Israeli government, paints a detailed picture of the devastating amphibious assault that left some 1,200 Israelis dead.

Hamas gunmen seize an Israeli military vehicle after infiltrating southern Israel during an attack on October 7. (Photo: New York Times)

The Jericho Wall documents outline Hamas's method of overwhelming attacks around the Gaza Strip to overwhelm Israel, with the aim of capturing Israeli cities and attacking key military bases. However, the documents do not indicate when the attacks would be carried out.

Documents show that Hamas followed the detailed plan with astonishing precision. The force launched a barrage of missiles from the moment the attack was launched, deployed drones to destroy security cameras, deployed automatic machine guns along the border, and fighters rushed into Israel by paraglider and motorbike.

The plan also details the location and size of Israeli military forces, communications centers and other sensitive information, raising questions about how Hamas gathered this intelligence and whether it leaked inside the Israeli security establishment.

Israeli military and intelligence leaders are said to have reviewed the Jericho Wall documents, but experts have determined that an attack of such scale and ambition is beyond Hamas' capabilities. The report does not say whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other top political leaders have seen the documents.

Last year, shortly after obtaining the document, officials in the Gaza Division (the Israeli military's unit responsible for protecting the border with Gaza) assessed that Hamas' intentions were unclear.

“It is still unclear whether the plan has been approved and how it will be implemented,” a military official assessed.

In July, just three months before the attack, a veteran analyst from Israel's 8200 intelligence unit warned that Hamas had conducted a high-intensity military exercise, stressing that the exercise was closely tied to the Jericho Wall and that Hamas was building the capacity to carry out the plan.

A colonel in the Gaza division welcomed the analysis but said the exercise was part of a "fantasy" scenario, not an indication of Hamas's ability to carry it out.

In response, the analyst wrote: "I completely reject the notion that this scenario is a fantasy because the Hamas exercise fits perfectly with the content of the Jericho Wall."

“In short, let's wait patiently,” the colonel replied.

A woman takes shelter after a missile siren sounds in Ashkelon, Israel, on October 7. (Photo: New York Times)

Officials have not revealed how they obtained the Jericho Walls plans. They say the plans in the document are so daring they could easily be underestimated. Every military has plans that are never used.

Israel also misinterpreted Hamas' actions, as the group negotiated permits to allow Palestinians to work in Israel, which Israeli officials saw as a sign it did not want war.

However, Hamas has been drawing up attack plans for years, and Israeli officials have also obtained several similar documents. For example, a 2016 Defense Ministry memo stated: “Hamas intends to bring the next confrontation into Israeli territory.”

“It could be an attack taking hostages and occupying one or even several Israeli communities,” the memo said.

Israeli officials admit that if the military had taken these warnings seriously and moved reinforcements south, where Hamas attacks, Israel could have reduced losses or even prevented the attacks.

Israel's intelligence failure has been compared to another mistake 20 years ago, when US officials missed an opportunity to stop an attack planned by the terrorist group Al Qaeda.

The September 11, 2001, attacks by Al Qaeda on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon were deemed a US intelligence failure, according to a government commission.

"Israel's failure on October 7 is very similar to our own September 11," said Ted Singer, a former CIA official who worked in the Middle East. "This failure clearly reflects a gap in intelligence analysis, which was not enough to convince the Israeli military and leadership that Hamas had planned the attack long before launching it."

Hoa Vu (Source: The New York Times)

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