Global pilot shortage

The world 's aircraft fleet will double over the next 20 years, putting further pressure on pilot recruitment, according to the International Air Transport Association.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has just sounded the alarm that the world will need to recruit about 500,000 to 600,000 pilots in the next two decades as the number of aircraft will double by 2044.

According to Boeing figures released in June, the global fleet will reach 48,575 aircraft in the next 20 years, compared with 24,500 today. Airbus has made a similar forecast. A series of large orders from the world's leading airlines is attesting to this future.

At the Dubai Airshow that ended on November 17, Emirates caused a stir with its decision to buy 90 Boeing 777X long-haul aircraft for $52 billion, plus 15 Airbus A350s for $5.5 billion.

Earlier, in June, at the Paris Air Show, Airbus attracted attention with a "historic" order of 500 Airbus A320s worth 44 billion euros from Air India. The company also reached a basic agreement to buy 355 Airbus planes worth 53 billion euros with Turkish Airlines.

Marc Rochet, president of Air Caraïbes and low-cost airline French Bee, said the steady increase in the number of commercial aircraft had put "recruitment pressure" on pilots in recent times.

United Airlines pilots at Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey, US on May 12. Photo: Reuters

The pilot shortage first became apparent as long-haul flights began to recover from the Covid-induced downturn. That’s because reaching remote destinations requires a lot of crew. According to Alexandre Blanc, executive vice president of flight operations at Air France, it takes five crews—10 pilots—to fly a medium-haul plane, and 21-24 pilots to fly a long-haul plane.

The demand to stay away from Russia due to the Ukraine conflict has added two hours to flights from Europe to Asia and Japan. "We are exceeding the 13.5-hour flight limit, forcing airlines to increase the number of pilots per crew from three to four," added Alexandre Blanc.

Guillaume Hue, an aviation expert at Archery Strategy Consulting, said the lack of pilots was already a problem. “This is a bigger constraint on airline expansion than the lack of aircraft,” he said.

Despite these warnings, the global pilot training system has yet to adjust its processes to meet IATA’s projections. In Toulouse, France, a total of 23 students graduate each year from the National Civil Aviation School (ENAC), according to Kirsty Benet-Scott, head of recruitment and testing. She said nothing would change for the 2024 exam, meaning only 23 would be accepted out of 1,200 pilot candidates.

Air France itself trains 150 to 200 pilots a year, according to Blanc. But that’s not enough to meet the airline’s needs. After hiring 424 pilots in 2022, Air France will hire around 500 in 2023 and maintain that pace in 2024. These hires are linked to the recovery from Covid and the increase in routes.

In the US, pilots have turned the shortage into an advantage. This past summer, United Airlines and American Airlines agreed to pay increases, with United alone agreeing to a raise of more than 40%. But the pilot shortage will be most acute in the regions where the most planes are being bought, namely Asia and the Gulf.

There was already an exodus of foreign pilots to both places looking for work before the pandemic. “A lot of American pilots left China and the Gulf to come back to the US after the crisis,” Blanc said.

Both Rochet and Blanc predict the shortage will weigh more heavily on smaller airlines, where wages are lower and advancement opportunities are more limited. But low-cost carriers are not necessarily at a disadvantage. Because they operate on medium-haul routes, they allow pilots to go home at night and offer similar salaries to the larger carriers.

One solution to the pilot shortage may lie in technology. Airbus and Boeing are both developing systems for operating a single-pilot cockpit. In other words, an aircraft with just one pilot at the controls. However, this will require changes in regulations and acceptance by pilots and passengers.

P Hien An ( according to Le Monde )

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