Support for stock market rebound

The stock market has grown strongly with a series of new records in terms of points and liquidity. The market's resilience is not only due to cash flow, but also from the support of internal business strength and reform, towards a sustainable growth cycle.

The boost after the shakeout session

With an increase of nearly 31% since the beginning of the year, VN-Index is among the top 10 most actively growing stock markets globally. If calculated from the bottom of the year, after a series of "shake-off" sessions followed by a strong correction in early April 2025 due to US tariff policies, the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange Index has increased by more than 55%.

More importantly, the liquidity story. The trading level of 28,000 - 30,000 billion VND/session was considered a record in the peak period in early 2022, but now it is equivalent to the average figure for this period. Liquidity in some sessions exceeded 3 billion USD, a figure that surprised even long-time investors or leaders of securities companies, beyond the assessment at the annual shareholders' meeting held in the middle of the year.

According to Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa, Director of Analysis at Agriseco, the current growth momentum is far beyond initial expectations but still logical. The economy is on track to achieve the GDP growth target of more than 8%, the first half business results of many enterprises have grown by double digits, the whole market has increased by more than 20%.

“Stocks are a market of expectations. The closer we get to the 2026-2030 growth period, the more investor confidence is strengthened,” Mr. Khoa emphasized. The biggest risk factor at the beginning of the year is tariffs, which are gradually being controlled, while credit and public investment policies are being implemented synchronously, creating a favorable environment for capital flows into the stock channel.

Although foreign capital has maintained a dominant net selling status since 2023, domestic investors are still absorbing well, especially the appearance of domestic institutions. Foreign investors are currently net selling nearly as much as in 2024, bringing the foreign ownership ratio to the lowest level since 2012. However, experts say this pressure may cool down as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has recently cut interest rates and has signals for further cuts at the last two meetings of 2025.

Support from internal force

The strong growth trend in recent months has not only come from favorable policies and capital flows, but also from the health of the real economy. After periods of strong stock market growth more or less linked to changes within the economy, the current period is associated with an era of rising up, determined to develop strongly and elevate the country. In addition to the low interest rate environment aimed at supporting growth in many large countries, many domestic drivers come from macroeconomic factors and catalysts from monetary policy along with four major resolutions of the Politburo to help Vietnam realize its aspiration for rapid and sustainable development in the new era.

The 8% GDP growth target in 2025 is still being closely followed. In particular, according to the expert from Agriseco, this year's public investment disbursement is expected to reach its highest level in more than a decade. This investment capital flow can create a spillover effect to many areas such as real estate, industrial parks, construction, materials, etc., creating more jobs, thereby promoting consumption and consolidating other economic indicators. Together with efforts to remove obstacles in implementing projects or reforming the operation of two-level local governments, these solutions support improved capital turnover in the economy.

In addition, Resolution 68 on private economic development emphasizes the role of enterprises in leading growth, opening up expectations for improved productivity, governance quality and capital mobilization capacity. The business results of the third quarter of 2025 are expected to clearly reflect the effects of reform and public investment, becoming a foundation of confidence for investors.

For the stock market alone, many important documents have been issued recently that are expected to create a new breeze, including Decree 245/2025/ND-CP amending Decree 155/2020/ND-CP detailing the implementation of a number of articles of the Securities Law, the Stock Market Upgrading Project, and the Investor Restructuring Project.

The proposed upgrade targets include meeting the upgrade criteria and maintaining FTSE Russell’s secondary emerging market status in the short term, and with further targets such as moving towards FTSE Russell’s advanced emerging market and MSCI’s emerging market status in the long term. More importantly, the solutions to move closer to the target are internal.

Policies to encourage private economic development are also creating more motivation for businesses to turn to the stock market as a channel to mobilize long-term capital, instead of depending on bank credit. After many years of stagnation, the wave of IPOs and new listings has returned, contributing to supplementing the supply of stocks and improving the quality of goods on the market. The addition of goods not only helps the stock market welcome opportunities and retain foreign capital when upgraded, but also goes hand in hand with the goal of economic growth, helping the stock market enter a new, more sustainable cycle.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/be-do-cho-suc-bat-thi-truong-chung-khoan-d392444.html